{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02a00d25-779f-4470-b86e-607520362f68", "symbol": "ECAR", "name": "iShares Electric Vehicles and Driving Technology UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.02, "architecture_energy": 23.277, "architecture_maturity": 69.28, "architecture_confidence": 77.815, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.64, "rotation_up": 16.93, "upward_expansion": 47.02, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 38.52, "downward_expansion": 27.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.0036, 11.361164, 11.40819, 10.852239 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.15, "trend_reference": 10.104267, "distance_from_trend": 0.103494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.638545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.459702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.449708, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.337412, "excess_performance": 0.16652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103494, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.459702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054497, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.337412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.990444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135781, "relative_activity": 0.774701, "balance": 2.990444, "dry_up": 0.786289, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067596, "annualized_volatility": 0.323878, "from_high_reference": -0.145725, "from_low_reference": 0.540907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.104267, "fair_value_reference": 7.638545, "structural_low": 7.891, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005309, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00808, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089613, "worst_return": -0.085228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012082, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119323, "worst_return": -0.12347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025853, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.015786, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.659482, "worst_return": -0.019818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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10.968, "volume": 102138, "typical_volume": 178060.9, "trend": 9.825933, "fair_value": 7.566788, "relative_strength": 8.412853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.58774, "energy": 31.355553, "activity_lines": [ 11.612533, 11.896909, 11.332152, 10.655783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.06, "volume": 177821, "typical_volume": 177381.5, "trend": 9.9274, "fair_value": 7.59, "relative_strength": 9.105259, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.268053, "energy": 28.664886, "activity_lines": [ 11.347467, 11.732291, 11.381876, 10.7354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.598, "volume": 135508, "typical_volume": 173467.75, "trend": 10.0096, "fair_value": 7.611449, "relative_strength": 3.535345, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.192922, "energy": 25.694398, "activity_lines": [ 11.0436, 11.4856, 11.374395, 10.778665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.15, "volume": 135781, "typical_volume": 175269.0, "trend": 10.104267, "fair_value": 7.638545, "relative_strength": 5.449708, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.020137, "energy": 23.277215, "activity_lines": [ 11.0036, 11.361164, 11.40819, 10.852239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }