{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02a01318-fd3d-468e-b4ce-e3e862b0554a", "symbol": "601006", "name": "Daqin Railway Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.742, "architecture_energy": 23.293, "architecture_maturity": 72.489, "architecture_confidence": 75.269, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.59, "rotation_up": 27.23, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 24.99, "downward_expansion": 61.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.837333, 4.774849, 4.915298, 4.995825 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.8, "trend_reference": 5.061953, "distance_from_trend": -0.051749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.086636, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.340665, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.043825, "excess_performance": -0.000621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059456, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043825, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.66145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 688562967, "relative_activity": 1.402869, "balance": 1.66145, "dry_up": 1.334831, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044422, "annualized_volatility": 0.169499, "from_high_reference": -0.259398, "from_low_reference": 0.082207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.061953, "fair_value_reference": 6.086636, "structural_low": 4.43538, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.014132, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.014197, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.065467, "worst_return": -0.05303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039568, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.064736, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.184678, "worst_return": -0.127675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069604, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.009233, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.222603, "worst_return": -0.115498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.900196, "energy": 87.821291, "activity_lines": [ 4.639208, 4.818383, 5.01089, 5.063339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.71, "volume": 693094103, "typical_volume": 545009066.4, "trend": 5.101953, "fair_value": 6.115599, "relative_strength": -10.017264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.118564, "energy": 84.204299, "activity_lines": [ 4.647149, 4.769318, 4.972468, 5.036482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.86, "volume": 625103705, "typical_volume": 519707533.65, "trend": 5.084286, "fair_value": 6.106097, "relative_strength": -7.70906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.579816, "energy": 53.315373, "activity_lines": [ 4.718487, 4.758616, 4.950189, 5.020872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.97, "volume": 613913403, "typical_volume": 494452766.25, "trend": 5.073953, "fair_value": 6.097141, "relative_strength": -5.339117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.787757, "energy": 31.336397, "activity_lines": [ 4.822123, 4.778096, 4.939958, 5.013499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.8, "volume": 688562967, "typical_volume": 490824944.5, "trend": 5.061953, "fair_value": 6.086636, "relative_strength": -10.340665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.741663, "energy": 23.29281, "activity_lines": [ 4.837333, 4.774849, 4.915298, 4.995825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }