{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02a2d3b9-f01e-4b26-8974-e8e9f426da5f", "symbol": "FLQA", "name": "Franklin FTSE Asia ex China ex Japan UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.333, "architecture_energy": 27.427, "architecture_maturity": 67.042, "architecture_confidence": 89.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.8, "rotation_up": 18.13, "upward_expansion": 53.26, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 37.11, "downward_expansion": 19.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.341, 37.327182, 37.07569, 35.734699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 36.450001, "trend_reference": 33.8905, "distance_from_trend": 0.075523, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.691013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.476246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.945585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.228928, "excess_performance": 0.058036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075523, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126448, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.476246, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039456, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.309761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164344, "relative_activity": 3.747949, "balance": 1.309761, "dry_up": 2.094555, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055883, "annualized_volatility": 0.279821, "from_high_reference": -0.114001, "from_low_reference": 0.565722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.8905, "fair_value_reference": 24.691013, "structural_low": 28.305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.001422, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.154544, "worst_return": -0.016177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044098, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012802, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.348793, "worst_return": -0.021669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04098, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.073355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152245, "worst_return": -0.038497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 32700.1, "trend": 33.000166, "fair_value": 24.368167, "relative_strength": 7.00874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.660738, "energy": 44.676205, "activity_lines": [ 38.134666, 38.364817, 36.773738, 35.169709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.610001, "volume": 46200, "typical_volume": 32963.5, "trend": 33.344666, "fair_value": 24.477538, "relative_strength": 8.920166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.788653, "energy": 29.373753, "activity_lines": [ 37.386, 38.087454, 36.939547, 35.402602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.66, "volume": 101914, "typical_volume": 36119.9, "trend": 33.617833, "fair_value": 24.580936, "relative_strength": 5.040762, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.509976, "energy": 27.316928, "activity_lines": [ 36.603333, 37.624454, 36.983952, 35.551978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.450001, "volume": 164344, "typical_volume": 43849.05, "trend": 33.8905, "fair_value": 24.691013, "relative_strength": 3.945585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.333066, "energy": 27.426622, "activity_lines": [ 36.341, 37.327182, 37.07569, 35.734699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }