{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02a6a7b3-e5a3-45d8-ba8a-c33432a3bcd8", "symbol": "HAFNI", "name": "Hafnia Limited", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.422, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.694, "architecture_energy": 18.203, "architecture_maturity": 34.268, "architecture_confidence": 57.536, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.7, "rotation_up": 43.61, "upward_expansion": 57.96, "deceleration": 69.49, "rotation_down": 15.17, "downward_expansion": 17.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.976668, 71.117274, 72.613822, 72.442636 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.050003, "trend_reference": 70.701393, "distance_from_trend": 0.004931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.225032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.486528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181385, "excess_performance": 0.056391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072857, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181385, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.403295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1946499, "relative_activity": 0.812028, "balance": 0.403295, "dry_up": 0.662832, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054069, "annualized_volatility": 0.305353, "from_high_reference": -0.177215, "from_low_reference": 0.377445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.701393, "fair_value_reference": 66.225032, "structural_low": 60.00159, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009056, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001043, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.219409, "worst_return": -0.073021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.127496, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.175641, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.390032, "worst_return": -0.155444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.287008, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.14847, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.347914, "worst_return": -0.312639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056366, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.285862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 2849389.95, "trend": 69.586241, "fair_value": 66.023084, "relative_strength": 1.713394, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.397827, "energy": 14.499871, "activity_lines": [ 71.296668, 70.7475, 72.942857, 72.187809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.75, "volume": 1243579, "typical_volume": 2580374.35, "trend": 70.263938, "fair_value": 66.131985, "relative_strength": -0.807535, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.978382, "energy": 16.639413, "activity_lines": [ 72.020001, 71.032082, 72.879554, 72.391922 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.050003, "volume": 1946499, "typical_volume": 2397082.6, "trend": 70.701393, "fair_value": 66.225032, "relative_strength": -3.486528, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.693855, "energy": 18.202603, "activity_lines": [ 71.976668, 71.117274, 72.613822, 72.442636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }