{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02ae9218-97c8-408d-937d-6edf4f832321", "symbol": "3024", "name": "Action Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.212, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.764, "architecture_energy": 17.971, "architecture_maturity": 29.561, "architecture_confidence": 49.108, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.58, "rotation_up": 38.77, "upward_expansion": 62.07, "deceleration": 54.1, "rotation_down": 22.67, "downward_expansion": 14.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.01, 12.846001, 13.082276, 12.67713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.45, "trend_reference": 12.068106, "distance_from_trend": 0.114508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.283281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119953, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.432237, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.3358, "excess_performance": -0.105572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054855, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119953, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192851, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110159, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.3358, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.802888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5531027, "relative_activity": 0.391437, "balance": 0.802888, "dry_up": 0.701725, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104623, "annualized_volatility": 0.633495, "from_high_reference": -0.255872, "from_low_reference": 0.381629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.068106, "fair_value_reference": 15.283281, "structural_low": 9.764353, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.052478, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.020491, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.155125, "worst_return": -0.065395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070588, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207944, "worst_return": 0.035294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128548, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.040149, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193564, "worst_return": -0.011765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106322, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184767, "worst_return": -0.009171, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031339, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057441, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068421, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.226834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091255, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.275964, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140996, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 16.221292, "volume": 17422666, "typical_volume": 11577381.55, "trend": 14.088022, "fair_value": 12.046844, "relative_strength": 11.692349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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11.904775, "fair_value": 15.369191, "relative_strength": -19.64269, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.495604, "energy": 20.304206, "activity_lines": [ 13.123079, 12.9172, 13.050962, 12.520433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.1, "volume": 7447412, "typical_volume": 14017677.3, "trend": 11.933186, "fair_value": 15.339428, "relative_strength": -25.014176, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.201076, "energy": 14.996873, "activity_lines": [ 12.891941, 12.701246, 13.00973, 12.533028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.7, "volume": 4327920, "typical_volume": 14011093.6, "trend": 11.983234, "fair_value": 15.310775, "relative_strength": -22.217263, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.359803, "energy": 18.152545, "activity_lines": [ 12.84, 12.688728, 13.015501, 12.5825 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.45, "volume": 5531027, "typical_volume": 14130038.8, "trend": 12.068106, "fair_value": 15.283281, "relative_strength": -19.432237, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.763988, "energy": 17.971104, "activity_lines": [ 13.01, 12.846001, 13.082276, 12.67713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }