{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02b52efd-3d55-4e07-9b04-2a4b8c7cfd0a", "symbol": "1903", "name": "Shihlin Paper Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.622, "architecture_energy": 39.069, "architecture_maturity": 46.928, "architecture_confidence": 95.395, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.94, "rotation_up": 17.84, "upward_expansion": 4.91, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 52.2, "downward_expansion": 75.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.506667, 47.862728, 48.192143, 48.789678 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.049999, "trend_reference": 50.138333, "distance_from_trend": -0.061596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.473077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.5609, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.120561, "excess_performance": -0.561933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047916, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120561, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550587, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384112, "relative_activity": 0.365756, "balance": 0.550587, "dry_up": 0.732206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041854, "annualized_volatility": 0.168652, "from_high_reference": -0.249601, "from_low_reference": 0.022826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.138333, "fair_value_reference": 54.473077, "structural_low": 46.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.011451, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.018476, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.290033, "worst_return": -0.117589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.01632, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.288931, "worst_return": -0.08726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.094938, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.242739, "worst_return": -0.149912, "sufficient": true }, 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54.814423, "relative_strength": -33.432214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.997932, "energy": 25.624644, "activity_lines": [ 48.460001, 48.379092, 48.659524, 49.605162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.900002, "volume": 558326, "typical_volume": 1062989.55, "trend": 50.906667, "fair_value": 54.797756, "relative_strength": -33.651187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.203195, "energy": 17.136981, "activity_lines": [ 48.686668, 48.479092, 48.643334, 49.461721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.099998, "volume": 1386205, "typical_volume": 1076034.65, "trend": 50.643333, "fair_value": 54.734936, "relative_strength": -34.363525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.538099, "energy": 24.134838, "activity_lines": [ 48.26, 48.237273, 48.472857, 49.216129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.400002, "volume": 747169, "typical_volume": 1078490.4, "trend": 50.416667, "fair_value": 54.583654, "relative_strength": -34.719303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.851396, "energy": 30.647283, "activity_lines": [ 47.890001, 48.065455, 48.344524, 49.006882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 47.049999, "volume": 384112, "typical_volume": 1050186.7, "trend": 50.138333, "fair_value": 54.473077, "relative_strength": -36.5609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.622273, "energy": 39.068983, "activity_lines": [ 47.506667, 47.862728, 48.192143, 48.789678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }