{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02b94b0f-121d-4eda-a5bf-8a004402d4f4", "symbol": "RDNW", "name": "RideNow Group, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.891, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.333, "architecture_energy": 20.165, "architecture_maturity": 8.074, "architecture_confidence": 62.316, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.06, "rotation_up": 18.95, "upward_expansion": 15.14, "deceleration": 61.25, "rotation_down": 50.35, "downward_expansion": 40.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.378667, 6.495091, 6.875905, 6.827914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.8, "trend_reference": 6.648667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.203013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.344372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.197183, "excess_performance": 0.009729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043444, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.461229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197183, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.297338, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 351989, "relative_activity": 0.793839, "balance": 0.297338, "dry_up": 0.703759, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12721, "annualized_volatility": 0.486737, "from_high_reference": -0.204678, "from_low_reference": 2.417085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.648667, "fair_value_reference": 5.203013, "structural_low": 5.5395, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018661, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.202797, "worst_return": -0.453012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.354321, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.372898, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056897, "worst_return": -0.512027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.280549, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.295852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286207, "worst_return": -0.529412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.416268, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.274554, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.481894, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078799, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.225352, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 14.479296, "energy": 14.198404, "activity_lines": [ 7.036667, 7.356, 7.208905, 6.940624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.88, "volume": 547573, "typical_volume": 439716.65, "trend": 6.570667, "fair_value": 5.287628, "relative_strength": -6.014724, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.339301, "energy": 23.222251, "activity_lines": [ 6.592, 7.058545, 7.102333, 6.89643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.94, "volume": 247262, "typical_volume": 442397.95, "trend": 6.580333, "fair_value": 5.265449, "relative_strength": -1.830137, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.345257, "energy": 34.886699, "activity_lines": [ 6.262, 6.796727, 7.006619, 6.855742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.4, "volume": 243559, "typical_volume": 443165.45, "trend": 6.611667, "fair_value": 5.239423, "relative_strength": 6.294197, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.82481, "energy": 37.851497, "activity_lines": [ 6.212667, 6.657091, 6.957286, 6.844108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.18, "volume": 405381, "typical_volume": 442138.45, "trend": 6.619333, "fair_value": 5.207244, "relative_strength": 0.93339, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.687012, "energy": 43.156433, "activity_lines": [ 6.165333, 6.504909, 6.887381, 6.816258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.8, "volume": 351989, "typical_volume": 443401.2, "trend": 6.648667, "fair_value": 5.203013, "relative_strength": 4.344372, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.332932, "energy": 20.165185, "activity_lines": [ 6.378667, 6.495091, 6.875905, 6.827914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }