{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02ba8c46-9679-4798-b03b-1b0de5ec8acd", "symbol": "BKIE", "name": "BNY MELLON ETF TR INTL EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.329, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.167, "architecture_energy": 72.926, "architecture_maturity": 36.137, "architecture_confidence": 78.741, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.9, "rotation_up": 67.81, "upward_expansion": 88.07, "deceleration": 46.74, "rotation_down": 16.29, "downward_expansion": 14.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.979556, 33.656287, 33.238701, 32.831316 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.91, "trend_reference": 32.422845, "distance_from_trend": 0.07671, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.933493, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346136, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.225616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081542, "excess_performance": -0.044083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07671, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026097, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002256, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012373, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081542, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131329, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 476807, "relative_activity": 0.896493, "balance": 1.131329, "dry_up": 1.457576, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023953, "annualized_volatility": 0.171654, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.262299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.422845, "fair_value_reference": 25.933493, "structural_low": 29.423046, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.012675, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.002343, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.085359, "worst_return": -0.076548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.045687, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.000247, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.082205, "worst_return": -0.09412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056655, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.039566, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.143993, "worst_return": -0.153482, "sufficient": true }, { 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32.401174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.226667, "volume": 507822, "typical_volume": 494550.65, "trend": 32.098123, "fair_value": 25.680619, "relative_strength": -0.61439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.384883, "energy": 40.157482, "activity_lines": [ 33.302835, 33.169825, 32.765062, 32.480613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.22, "volume": 848654, "typical_volume": 489597.2, "trend": 32.187688, "fair_value": 25.757072, "relative_strength": -0.081699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.994912, "energy": 41.67961, "activity_lines": [ 33.279209, 33.207981, 32.859967, 32.552992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.89, "volume": 1267611, "typical_volume": 524713.4, "trend": 32.298291, "fair_value": 25.842134, "relative_strength": 0.756946, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.754074, "energy": 48.055266, "activity_lines": [ 33.494, 33.349298, 33.009053, 32.662819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.91, "volume": 476807, "typical_volume": 531857.95, "trend": 32.422845, "fair_value": 25.933493, "relative_strength": 0.225616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.166645, "energy": 72.926041, "activity_lines": [ 33.979556, 33.656287, 33.238701, 32.831316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }