{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02bbe172-0e15-489e-8fc9-d26c7ee148da", "symbol": "600741", "name": "HUAYU Automotive Systems Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.146, "architecture_energy": 29.171, "architecture_maturity": 88.129, "architecture_confidence": 81.884, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.07, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 22.9, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 28.58, "downward_expansion": 61.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.218724, 15.97302, 16.589055, 17.228015 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 18.060918, "distance_from_trend": -0.114109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.948361, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055956, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.503932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.167967, "excess_performance": -0.124763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069121, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055956, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523793, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82386931, "relative_activity": 1.001349, "balance": 0.523793, "dry_up": 1.177366, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054172, "annualized_volatility": 0.271197, "from_high_reference": -0.257196, "from_low_reference": 0.093512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.060918, "fair_value_reference": 16.948361, "structural_low": 14.63176, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.008455, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.032261, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.186869, "worst_return": -0.104589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.068182, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.036463, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.227264, "worst_return": -0.120541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034826, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008407, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.299861, "worst_return": -0.097239, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 79036273.25, "trend": 18.294918, "fair_value": 16.948297, "relative_strength": -10.374286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.122695, "energy": 60.00785, "activity_lines": [ 15.708898, 15.848567, 16.803794, 17.462155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.860001, "volume": 88799428, "typical_volume": 80627845.65, "trend": 18.194252, "fair_value": 16.951231, "relative_strength": -7.704825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.536263, "energy": 42.092936, "activity_lines": [ 16.171062, 15.987339, 16.732377, 17.36958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 82386931, "typical_volume": 82275936.25, "trend": 18.060918, "fair_value": 16.948361, "relative_strength": -14.503932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.146356, "energy": 29.170926, "activity_lines": [ 16.218724, 15.97302, 16.589055, 17.228015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }