{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02bd1b81-d1f6-45cc-a443-9277f552b231", "symbol": "CSMD", "name": "PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED PORTFOLIOS CONGRESS SMID GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.914, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.282, "architecture_energy": 24.766, "architecture_maturity": 48.87, "architecture_confidence": 78.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.22, "rotation_up": 30.83, "upward_expansion": 56.91, "deceleration": 87.73, "rotation_down": 30.69, "downward_expansion": 20.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.632207, 34.846575, 34.434479, 33.938642 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.9082, "trend_reference": 33.57854, "distance_from_trend": 0.069379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.012689, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196434, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.596725, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058614, "excess_performance": -0.06701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.936023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197574, "relative_activity": 0.832428, "balance": 0.936023, "dry_up": 0.734, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042486, "annualized_volatility": 0.182353, "from_high_reference": -0.030556, "from_low_reference": 0.215991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.57854, "fair_value_reference": 30.012689, "structural_low": 29.53, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"relative_strength": -3.596725, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.282268, "energy": 24.766411, "activity_lines": [ 34.632207, 34.846575, 34.434479, 33.938642 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }