{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02c571b8-a97c-49b6-bee1-9756b009d340", "symbol": "ACL", "name": "Andhra Cements Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.336, "architecture_energy": 79.25, "architecture_maturity": 18.542, "architecture_confidence": 86.198, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.1, "rotation_up": 9.57, "upward_expansion": 18.72, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 77.11, "downward_expansion": 94.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.908001, 49.276183, 51.517286, 52.200345 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.950001, "trend_reference": 53.682001, "distance_from_trend": -0.106777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78.943718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.970898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181182, "excess_performance": -0.137473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127251, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532097, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78823, "relative_activity": 0.756873, "balance": 0.532097, "dry_up": 0.757896, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051223, "annualized_volatility": 0.502521, "from_high_reference": -0.564051, "from_low_reference": 0.183951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.682001, "fair_value_reference": 78.943718, "structural_low": 40.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.024415, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.04257, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.959023, "worst_return": -0.359091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.131504, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.149411, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.193378, "worst_return": -0.377104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.135354, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.155456, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.479679, "worst_return": -0.414557, "sufficient": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 49.150002, "volume": 98169, "typical_volume": 114429.0, "trend": 56.482667, "fair_value": 80.28891, "relative_strength": -22.657803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.005323, "energy": 73.84827, "activity_lines": [ 51.222668, 52.637092, 53.398905, 54.157398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.009998, "volume": 45670, "typical_volume": 112466.4, "trend": 55.868, "fair_value": 80.080962, "relative_strength": -22.841065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.780744, "energy": 79.350206, "activity_lines": [ 50.226667, 51.765455, 52.988524, 53.675291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.060001, "volume": 65966, "typical_volume": 111824.95, "trend": 55.14, "fair_value": 79.741603, "relative_strength": -23.678056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.357174, "energy": 87.639156, "activity_lines": [ 48.89, 50.695819, 52.423524, 53.107033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.630001, "volume": 125259, "typical_volume": 113756.7, "trend": 54.493667, "fair_value": 79.339231, "relative_strength": -24.253579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.28769, "energy": 83.653973, "activity_lines": [ 48.188667, 49.88891, 51.944858, 52.622517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.950001, "volume": 78823, "typical_volume": 104142.9, "trend": 53.682001, "fair_value": 78.943718, "relative_strength": -23.970898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.335878, "energy": 79.250104, "activity_lines": [ 47.908001, 49.276183, 51.517286, 52.200345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }