{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02cc3015-ac83-41ea-8075-c8c3e638e519", "symbol": "300928", "name": "HAXC Holdings (Beijing) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.963, "architecture_energy": 83.149, "architecture_maturity": 24.496, "architecture_confidence": 86.864, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 8.67, "upward_expansion": 20.31, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 78.84, "downward_expansion": 95.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.423334, 26.020546, 28.565905, 29.509097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.110001, "trend_reference": 30.667, "distance_from_trend": -0.181205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.286601, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.308009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.013198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220186, "excess_performance": -0.227586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040727, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.308009, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220186, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.318536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7203400, "relative_activity": 1.007232, "balance": 0.318536, "dry_up": 1.050818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104341, "annualized_volatility": 0.4087, "from_high_reference": -0.333599, "from_low_reference": 0.176664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.667, "fair_value_reference": 36.286601, "structural_low": 21.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006493, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.003282, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.318983, "worst_return": -0.283633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036797, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054419, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.221409, "worst_return": -0.232539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.067349, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.082913, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.526177, "worst_return": -0.191148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 29.902, 31.305636, 31.513809, 31.662667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.309999, "volume": 6174010, "typical_volume": 7149982.95, "trend": 31.549, "fair_value": 36.882867, "relative_strength": -26.775003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.762457, "energy": 73.155091, "activity_lines": [ 28.566, 30.207091, 31.003095, 31.314989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.16, "volume": 7980200, "typical_volume": 7307846.75, "trend": 31.405, "fair_value": 36.780847, "relative_strength": -22.295799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.156851, "energy": 82.053667, "activity_lines": [ 27.236667, 29.007818, 30.417809, 30.902796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.51, "volume": 8665170, "typical_volume": 7235803.3, "trend": 31.109, "fair_value": 36.575201, "relative_strength": -29.927142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.669329, "energy": 88.173774, "activity_lines": [ 25.339333, 27.524182, 29.620286, 30.328925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.16, "volume": 6211675, "typical_volume": 7077156.9, "trend": 30.868333, "fair_value": 36.411224, "relative_strength": -22.837161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.777858, "energy": 84.855416, "activity_lines": [ 24.558667, 26.582909, 29.027571, 29.880602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.110001, "volume": 7203400, "typical_volume": 7151679.5, "trend": 30.667, "fair_value": 36.286601, "relative_strength": -23.013198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.962915, "energy": 83.148802, "activity_lines": [ 24.423334, 26.020546, 28.565905, 29.509097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }