{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02cc7438-7ac0-48a0-8e9c-653141f4ff19", "symbol": "ENC", "name": "ENCE Energ\u00eda y Celulosa, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 84.744, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.434, "architecture_energy": 69.864, "architecture_maturity": 8.78, "architecture_confidence": 66.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.16, "rotation_up": 72.12, "upward_expansion": 88.2, "deceleration": 44.92, "rotation_down": 9.33, "downward_expansion": 14.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.543067, 2.479127, 2.446305, 2.421333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.594, "trend_reference": 2.391333, "distance_from_trend": 0.08475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.807832, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076155, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.10836, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130776, "excess_performance": 0.006345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071266, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062632, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130776, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.155799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1304932, "relative_activity": 0.912105, "balance": 2.155799, "dry_up": 1.465422, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04715, "annualized_volatility": 0.300212, "from_high_reference": -0.120678, "from_low_reference": 0.21215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.391333, "fair_value_reference": 2.807832, "structural_low": 2.14, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.023448, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.018211, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.213274, "worst_return": -0.185714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.05313, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.098118, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.372454, "worst_return": -0.194954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026361, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.121598, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.39904, "worst_return": -0.219037, "sufficient": true }, { 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2.4468, 2.424109, 2.409581, 2.395553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.568, "volume": 1610357, "typical_volume": 1482221.15, "trend": 2.382867, "fair_value": 2.808659, "relative_strength": -11.073763, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.195485, "energy": 59.864992, "activity_lines": [ 2.4996, 2.450073, 2.427257, 2.407712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.594, "volume": 1304932, "typical_volume": 1430681.1, "trend": 2.391333, "fair_value": 2.807832, "relative_strength": -11.10836, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.434043, "energy": 69.86386, "activity_lines": [ 2.543067, 2.479127, 2.446305, 2.421333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }