{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02ccbfd0-74c3-4bc6-9e0c-adbb22e58dd6", "symbol": "STAR-A", "name": "Starbreeze AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.853, "architecture_energy": 19.889, "architecture_maturity": 40.083, "architecture_confidence": 44.058, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.7, "rotation_up": 22.67, "upward_expansion": 19.59, "deceleration": 52.71, "rotation_down": 48.03, "downward_expansion": 44.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.124233, 0.127409, 0.131707, 0.130276 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.1205, "trend_reference": 0.12698, "distance_from_trend": -0.051032, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.291842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.587106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.500445, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029915, "excess_performance": -0.03158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.587106, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060192, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029915, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 708347, "relative_activity": 2.885229, "balance": 0.564865, "dry_up": 1.147021, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.209065, "annualized_volatility": 1.191341, "from_high_reference": -0.569643, "from_low_reference": 0.29015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.12698, "fair_value_reference": 0.291842, "structural_low": 0.0934, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.044318, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.039072, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.440678, "worst_return": -0.253275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.205556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.225194, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.672042, "worst_return": -0.410853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.37546, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.314341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.967741, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.244445, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.358448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.179928, "worst_return": -0.422983, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.397059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.196266, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.46875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276786, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.447115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.339853, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.383333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"energy": 9.034934, "activity_lines": [ 0.131067, 0.1344, 0.13416, 0.130542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.14, "volume": 56350, "typical_volume": 231711.85, "trend": 0.12728, "fair_value": 0.311015, "relative_strength": -19.42745, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.263662, "energy": 8.682773, "activity_lines": [ 0.1341, 0.134327, 0.135034, 0.131384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.119, "volume": 188564, "typical_volume": 233031.95, "trend": 0.126913, "fair_value": 0.305336, "relative_strength": -31.42146, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.420395, "energy": 5.744739, "activity_lines": [ 0.1291, 0.130982, 0.133753, 0.13085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1245, "volume": 173151, "typical_volume": 233577.4, "trend": 0.12698, "fair_value": 0.298442, "relative_strength": -28.039617, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.926531, "energy": 9.66081, "activity_lines": [ 0.127, 0.1292, 0.132954, 0.130694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1205, "volume": 708347, "typical_volume": 245508.1, "trend": 0.12698, "fair_value": 0.291842, "relative_strength": -30.500445, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.852714, "energy": 19.88947, "activity_lines": [ 0.124233, 0.127409, 0.131707, 0.130276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }