{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02cde586-9009-4bb4-8a0b-90ba76179545", "symbol": "GPMT", "name": "Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.182, "architecture_energy": 32.472, "architecture_maturity": 81.264, "architecture_confidence": 89.407, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.39, "rotation_up": 21.4, "upward_expansion": 2.45, "deceleration": 54.52, "rotation_down": 49.53, "downward_expansion": 75.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.349333, 1.365403, 1.379983, 1.421683 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.27, "trend_reference": 1.543714, "distance_from_trend": -0.177309, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.696789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.52907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.389825, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.374954, "excess_performance": -0.500579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177309, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.52907, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.433898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001794, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.374954, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1323489, "relative_activity": 1.717779, "balance": 0.932102, "dry_up": 1.072687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126787, "annualized_volatility": 0.508003, "from_high_reference": -0.56059, "from_low_reference": 0.03252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.543714, "fair_value_reference": 2.696789, "structural_low": 1.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.029294, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.046838, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.328206, "worst_return": -0.28733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.077094, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.054407, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.185433, "worst_return": -0.353216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.180354, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.233226, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.383389, "worst_return": -0.391562, "sufficient": true }, 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192085, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047102, 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-39.71869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.708648, "energy": 30.434584, "activity_lines": [ 1.371575, 1.377432, 1.388501, 1.451701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.44, "volume": 649871, "typical_volume": 763304.4, "trend": 1.573603, "fair_value": 2.715254, "relative_strength": -34.651646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.716834, "energy": 20.793227, "activity_lines": [ 1.391333, 1.38783, 1.392166, 1.44127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.27, "volume": 1323489, "typical_volume": 770465.4, "trend": 1.543714, "fair_value": 2.696789, "relative_strength": -43.389825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.1815, "energy": 32.471796, "activity_lines": [ 1.349333, 1.365403, 1.379983, 1.421683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }