{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02d052b7-eb10-4095-8809-c44102aa0c22", "symbol": "GILT", "name": "Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.694, "architecture_energy": 63.289, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.796, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.17, "rotation_up": 16.18, "upward_expansion": 13.04, "deceleration": 41.44, "rotation_down": 66.45, "downward_expansion": 88.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.122, 11.697455, 13.454, 14.35757 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.23, "trend_reference": 15.437, "distance_from_trend": -0.272527, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.646186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.935432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.391658, "excess_performance": -0.579111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.272527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001132, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.110222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.615972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.391658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3936294, "relative_activity": 1.056773, "balance": 0.785211, "dry_up": 0.812315, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200447, "annualized_volatility": 0.73315, "from_high_reference": -0.463398, "from_low_reference": 0.318849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.437, "fair_value_reference": 8.646186, "structural_low": 10.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.012377, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.005012, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.205686, "worst_return": -0.157971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.058052, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.023119, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.667224, "worst_return": -0.149847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.142668, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004028, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.983278, "worst_return": -0.234401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027066, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027888, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.478912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008079, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.695, "volume": 615122, "typical_volume": 577231.1, "trend": 5.692333, "fair_value": 7.38659, "relative_strength": 0.479704, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.109251, "energy": 57.504754, "activity_lines": [ 13.048667, 14.260545, 15.500571, 15.791828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.01, "volume": 2145469, "typical_volume": 3963670.25, "trend": 15.727667, "fair_value": 8.527596, "relative_strength": -24.882238, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.81488, "energy": 72.395029, "activity_lines": [ 12.558667, 13.655818, 15.125714, 15.550538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.14, "volume": 2544474, "typical_volume": 3917544.35, "trend": 15.705333, "fair_value": 8.558173, "relative_strength": -27.420603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.136144, "energy": 75.158133, "activity_lines": [ 11.946, 13.010545, 14.681238, 15.254559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.73, "volume": 3108375, "typical_volume": 3842987.25, "trend": 15.643333, "fair_value": 8.588173, "relative_strength": -29.079186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.506235, "energy": 73.001495, "activity_lines": [ 11.454, 12.440727, 14.220381, 14.93357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.05, "volume": 2513782, "typical_volume": 3828389.85, "trend": 15.564667, "fair_value": 8.618814, "relative_strength": -27.536104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.375669, "energy": 70.077858, "activity_lines": [ 11.232667, 12.010182, 13.815762, 14.637226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.23, "volume": 3936294, "typical_volume": 3724823.1, "trend": 15.437, "fair_value": 8.646186, "relative_strength": -29.935432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.693653, "energy": 63.288706, "activity_lines": [ 11.122, 11.697455, 13.454, 14.35757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }