{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "02d1e9ad-87e9-405d-8ae4-64300db301f0",
    "symbol": "SCITY",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI Smart Cities UCITS ETF ACC",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 41.926,
    "architecture_energy": 32.963,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.484,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.58,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 39.08,
        "rotation_up": 24.76,
        "upward_expansion": 56.81,
        "deceleration": 91.16,
        "rotation_down": 35.29,
        "downward_expansion": 20.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        94.750665,
        96.008726,
        95.546094,
        92.758279
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 97.57,
    "trend_reference": 89.223667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.093544,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 69.047372,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413088,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 4.861103,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.203379,
    "excess_performance": 0.120496,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.093544,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076757,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.413088,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010564,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048611,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121756,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.203379,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.483501,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 203,
      "relative_activity": 1.200473,
      "balance": 1.483501,
      "dry_up": 1.241869,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.03316,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.231451,
      "from_high_reference": -0.04493,
      "from_low_reference": 0.338592
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 89.223667,
      "fair_value_reference": 69.047372,
      "structural_low": 75.580002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.027569,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002579,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.144639,
        "worst_return": -0.051273,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.041797,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002991,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.260221,
        "worst_return": -0.044608,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.059206,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009704,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.309371,
        "worst_return": -0.029482,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.020273,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.047032,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.034718,
        "worst_return": 0.005828,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-03-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043897,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.02863,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.026549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.052278,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003471,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.106468,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.167156,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.01471,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.026405,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01869,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.006603,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.144639,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041507,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045318,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.309155,
        "energy": 83.524178,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.717334,
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          82.860572,
          81.842259
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 93.830002,
        "volume": 444,
        "typical_volume": 272.2,
        "trend": 81.057001,
        "fair_value": 65.907949,
        "relative_strength": 17.036665,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.389197,
        "energy": 94.835075,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.754668,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 93.849998,
        "volume": 75,
        "typical_volume": 272.7,
        "trend": 81.621667,
        "fair_value": 66.141667,
        "relative_strength": 15.41368,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.443277,
        "energy": 94.440016,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.68,
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          85.068429,
          83.525463
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 96.540001,
        "volume": 3,
        "typical_volume": 270.2,
        "trend": 82.22,
        "fair_value": 66.399551,
        "relative_strength": 15.643024,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.749926,
        "energy": 95.14403,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.761334,
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          86.319762,
          84.487936
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 100.18,
        "volume": 625,
        "typical_volume": 300.45,
        "trend": 82.863334,
        "fair_value": 66.670193,
        "relative_strength": 18.948997,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.650969,
        "energy": 96.649195,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.344667,
          92.37091,
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          85.646646
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 99.010002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 299.3,
        "trend": 83.557334,
        "fair_value": 66.928462,
        "relative_strength": 18.243689,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.900402,
        "energy": 92.136671,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.794667,
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          89.135191,
          86.688366
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 98.099998,
        "volume": 93,
        "typical_volume": 301.35,
        "trend": 84.262334,
        "fair_value": 67.172693,
        "relative_strength": 13.907296,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.470443,
        "energy": 87.757131,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 102.160004,
        "volume": 4,
        "typical_volume": 298.8,
        "trend": 85.231667,
        "fair_value": 67.456603,
        "relative_strength": 17.454753,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.793277,
        "energy": 91.984985,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 98.019997,
        "volume": 55,
        "typical_volume": 300.65,
        "trend": 85.948667,
        "fair_value": 67.708718,
        "relative_strength": 9.201122,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.38878,
        "energy": 66.405996,
        "activity_lines": [
          99.416,
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          92.65,
          89.606345
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 99.18,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 178.7,
        "trend": 86.611667,
        "fair_value": 67.965769,
        "relative_strength": 8.285672,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.542289,
        "energy": 64.720151,
        "activity_lines": [
          99.311333,
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          93.622619,
          90.459979
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 97.809998,
        "volume": 36,
        "typical_volume": 180.3,
        "trend": 87.190334,
        "fair_value": 68.199551,
        "relative_strength": 7.936607,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.301635,
        "energy": 62.212584,
        "activity_lines": [
          98.816666,
          98.645818,
          94.395143,
          91.182452
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 92.589996,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 150.55,
        "trend": 87.678667,
        "fair_value": 68.401923,
        "relative_strength": 1.281687,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.668667,
        "energy": 39.716765,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.661998,
          97.686181,
          94.610333,
          91.530817
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 93.339996,
        "volume": 124,
        "typical_volume": 153.45,
        "trend": 88.165,
        "fair_value": 68.603398,
        "relative_strength": 2.101399,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.611089,
        "energy": 29.840425,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.124664,
          96.885453,
          94.866142,
          91.896064
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 92.599998,
        "volume": 511,
        "typical_volume": 160.0,
        "trend": 88.640667,
        "fair_value": 68.805449,
        "relative_strength": 1.070257,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.850294,
        "energy": 31.22407,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.928664,
          95.959453,
          95.000428,
          92.182193
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 97.57,
        "volume": 203,
        "typical_volume": 169.1,
        "trend": 89.223667,
        "fair_value": 69.047372,
        "relative_strength": 4.861103,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.925839,
        "energy": 32.963073,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.750665,
          96.008726,
          95.546094,
          92.758279
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}