{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02d230d0-066f-4cd9-843e-312ad1a517d6", "symbol": "APRE", "name": "Aprea Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.747, "architecture_energy": 63.363, "architecture_maturity": 18.242, "architecture_confidence": 90.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.98, "rotation_up": 12.3, "upward_expansion": 13.88, "deceleration": 37.93, "rotation_down": 71.11, "downward_expansion": 91.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.652767, 0.685438, 0.753333, 0.773798 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.6503, "trend_reference": 0.791143, "distance_from_trend": -0.178025, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.832923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.770449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.519662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057536, "excess_performance": -0.24499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129888, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.770449, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057536, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 348763, "relative_activity": 0.26932, "balance": 0.636774, "dry_up": 0.222363, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188079, "annualized_volatility": 0.849036, "from_high_reference": -0.637352, "from_low_reference": 0.186679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.791143, "fair_value_reference": 2.832923, "structural_low": 0.5505, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.062161, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.077788, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.483636, "worst_return": -0.499046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.233292, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.282923, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.492308, "worst_return": -0.591981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.469635, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.498839, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.498201, "worst_return": -0.593467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.334218, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-01", 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0.773238, 0.813748, 0.815473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7095, "volume": 349387, "typical_volume": 1325906.4, "trend": 0.820347, "fair_value": 2.891719, "relative_strength": -41.629633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.070384, "energy": 32.894431, "activity_lines": [ 0.736367, 0.753673, 0.802513, 0.807847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.632, "volume": 139996, "typical_volume": 1303000.6, "trend": 0.80874, "fair_value": 2.876027, "relative_strength": -45.713437, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.552437, "energy": 49.96068, "activity_lines": [ 0.700333, 0.724933, 0.784884, 0.795696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.62, "volume": 313671, "typical_volume": 1295254.7, "trend": 0.800973, "fair_value": 2.85436, "relative_strength": -45.743214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.30829, "energy": 59.44434, "activity_lines": [ 0.665833, 0.699431, 0.76739, 0.783519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6503, "volume": 348763, "typical_volume": 1294975.85, "trend": 0.791143, "fair_value": 2.832923, "relative_strength": -44.519662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.746897, "energy": 63.36324, "activity_lines": [ 0.652767, 0.685438, 0.753333, 0.773798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }