{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02db4ab8-2297-4f38-8326-20d26abd1a65", "symbol": "ADTN", "name": "ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.411, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -59.437, "architecture_energy": 79.848, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.667, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.76, "rotation_up": 16.07, "upward_expansion": 25.69, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 82.53, "downward_expansion": 69.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.019533, 9.573455, 11.186471, 11.233976 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.497, "trend_reference": 10.8124, "distance_from_trend": -0.399116, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.585968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.3764, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195518, "excess_performance": -0.369764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.399116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129795, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.850539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.433764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.69735, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195518, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.675294, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.413993, "balance": 8.675294, "dry_up": 0.219934, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.277453, "annualized_volatility": 0.657042, "from_high_reference": -0.617418, "from_low_reference": 0.052998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.8124, "fair_value_reference": 7.585968, "structural_low": 6.497, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a 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"mixed", "direction": -41.730881, "energy": 54.150231, "activity_lines": [ 10.2452, 11.374, 12.185205, 11.737817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.38, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 801.05, "trend": 10.8419, "fair_value": 7.589146, "relative_strength": -34.18873, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.255361, "energy": 67.76891, "activity_lines": [ 9.1388, 10.500764, 11.7248, 11.514292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.497, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 483.1, "trend": 10.8124, "fair_value": 7.585968, "relative_strength": -43.3764, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.436747, "energy": 79.848481, "activity_lines": [ 8.019533, 9.573455, 11.186471, 11.233976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }