{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02dbe524-872c-47be-9b72-f7cb26e499ff", "symbol": "PATELENG", "name": "Patel Engineering Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.4, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.238, "architecture_energy": 26.365, "architecture_maturity": 66.456, "architecture_confidence": 72.954, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.21, "rotation_up": 19.92, "upward_expansion": 54.32, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 44.34, "downward_expansion": 22.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.484, 29.710727, 29.133428, 28.511161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.59, "trend_reference": 28.079, "distance_from_trend": 0.018199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.850856, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376457, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.139151, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003833, "excess_performance": 0.039876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018199, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047781, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.499679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18990118, "relative_activity": 0.994797, "balance": 0.499679, "dry_up": 1.022671, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078403, "annualized_volatility": 0.429035, "from_high_reference": -0.331541, "from_low_reference": 0.299545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.079, "fair_value_reference": 45.850856, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.033595, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.033811, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.113208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.170498, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.150146, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.104651, "worst_return": -0.116667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.367068, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.252602, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.978682, "worst_return": -0.304419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.397759, "energy": 82.761166, "activity_lines": [ 32.383333, 30.56109, 28.978095, 28.437785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.59, "volume": 21589165, "typical_volume": 20237486.8, "trend": 28.121333, "fair_value": 46.210536, "relative_strength": -4.595924, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.751792, "energy": 76.209448, "activity_lines": [ 31.715999, 30.600363, 29.147476, 28.529333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.02, "volume": 21026154, "typical_volume": 20263788.4, "trend": 28.075, "fair_value": 46.110984, "relative_strength": -6.943096, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.118138, "energy": 34.763249, "activity_lines": [ 30.373333, 30.340181, 29.157809, 28.522795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.33, "volume": 16483457, "typical_volume": 19807912.3, "trend": 28.025333, "fair_value": 45.9756, "relative_strength": -11.006537, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.227057, "energy": 19.908503, "activity_lines": [ 29.000667, 29.922545, 29.09219, 28.474731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.59, "volume": 18990118, "typical_volume": 19089441.55, "trend": 28.079, "fair_value": 45.850856, "relative_strength": -7.139151, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.238128, "energy": 26.364739, "activity_lines": [ 28.484, 29.710727, 29.133428, 28.511161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }