{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02e37b2c-23fd-4e8d-8282-b0b4686dbf08", "symbol": "BST", "name": "Banca Sistema S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.131, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.939, "architecture_energy": 57.917, "architecture_maturity": 8.828, "architecture_confidence": 78.292, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 11.03, "upward_expansion": 9.67, "deceleration": 45.41, "rotation_down": 69.92, "downward_expansion": 83.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.562667, 1.585164, 1.64079, 1.654938 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.608, "trend_reference": 1.666933, "distance_from_trend": -0.035354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.497689, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.910177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035971, "excess_performance": -0.206863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073654, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143149, "relative_activity": 0.519808, "balance": 0.788409, "dry_up": 0.405243, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042767, "annualized_volatility": 0.235995, "from_high_reference": -0.110619, "from_low_reference": 0.074866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.666933, "fair_value_reference": 1.497689, "structural_low": 1.496, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.008735, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.243942, "worst_return": -0.107758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.073496, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.02908, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.194438, "worst_return": -0.111826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025833, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057643, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.399031, "worst_return": -0.16188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248921, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032138, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067332, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073431, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.09696, "volume": 251680, "typical_volume": 814645.8, "trend": 1.242406, "fair_value": 1.521632, "relative_strength": -22.840484, "stage": 4, 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"volume": 139991, "typical_volume": 390829.8, "trend": 1.674533, "fair_value": 1.491613, "relative_strength": -20.907664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.813597, "energy": 89.859235, "activity_lines": [ 1.5392, 1.607309, 1.6564, 1.665424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.574, "volume": 116128, "typical_volume": 323084.6, "trend": 1.67, "fair_value": 1.49456, "relative_strength": -16.770287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.440474, "energy": 80.302092, "activity_lines": [ 1.543467, 1.591236, 1.646781, 1.658938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.608, "volume": 143149, "typical_volume": 275388.35, "trend": 1.666933, "fair_value": 1.497689, "relative_strength": -16.910177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.938627, "energy": 57.916789, "activity_lines": [ 1.562667, 1.585164, 1.64079, 1.654938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }