{ "ticker": { "uuid": "02e8b63b-6ec6-4e45-a4ee-de68f741cb09", "symbol": "ANF", "name": "ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 81.037, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 64.959, "architecture_energy": 87.008, "architecture_maturity": 25.818, "architecture_confidence": 80.017, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.26, "rotation_up": 79.68, "upward_expansion": 67.32, "deceleration": 23.67, "rotation_down": 16.01, "downward_expansion": 27.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1790.118669, 1689.118919, 1580.108864, 1565.848026 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1925.0, "trend_reference": 1574.351001, "distance_from_trend": 0.222726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1877.385569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025362, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.074934, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.118536, "excess_performance": 0.173202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.222726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.317831, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.160749, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.412788, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 52.292857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 429, "relative_activity": 0.713039, "balance": 52.292857, "dry_up": 0.199452, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04787, "annualized_volatility": 0.469989, "from_high_reference": -0.178754, "from_low_reference": 0.584362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1574.351001, "fair_value_reference": 1877.385569, "structural_low": 1275.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202687, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100629, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 2714.620117, "volume": 771, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.513756, "energy": 29.328198, "activity_lines": [ 1528.328027, 1474.293106, 1475.409294, 1520.850392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1749.0, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 581.4, "trend": 1619.403003, "fair_value": 1880.036172, "relative_strength": 4.717215, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 30.151602, "energy": 41.879306, "activity_lines": [ 1600.853353, 1532.605469, 1499.187579, 1528.373811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1630.0, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 582.55, "trend": 1597.403003, "fair_value": 1877.404212, "relative_strength": -1.510113, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.811726, "energy": 49.634832, "activity_lines": [ 1620.445345, 1562.299649, 1511.068864, 1529.057488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1828.0, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 580.2, "trend": 1585.343669, "fair_value": 1876.889585, "relative_strength": 9.773753, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.268628, "energy": 74.943291, "activity_lines": [ 1699.156006, 1621.539284, 1541.810293, 1543.934714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1925.0, "volume": 429, "typical_volume": 601.65, "trend": 1574.351001, "fair_value": 1877.385569, "relative_strength": 16.074934, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.959195, "energy": 87.00766, "activity_lines": [ 1790.118669, 1689.118919, 1580.108864, 1565.848026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }