{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0308cb9e-664b-422e-853f-ce8d1e4a5541", "symbol": "FOPC", "name": "FRONTIER ASSET OPPORTUNISTIC CREDIT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.447, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.106, "architecture_energy": 53.316, "architecture_maturity": 14.417, "architecture_confidence": 90.576, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.55, "rotation_up": 13.95, "upward_expansion": 10.91, "deceleration": 39.98, "rotation_down": 60.87, "downward_expansion": 84.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.19702, 25.240267, 25.270869, 25.317854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.2516, "trend_reference": 25.384016, "distance_from_trend": -0.005217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.904799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013925, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.290549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010874, "excess_performance": -0.136499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.057763, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4864, "relative_activity": 0.424351, "balance": 1.057763, "dry_up": 0.688306, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005807, "annualized_volatility": 0.039302, "from_high_reference": -0.03066, "from_low_reference": 0.01712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.384016, "fair_value_reference": 24.904799, "structural_low": 25.007872, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.010984, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024619, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.010984, "worst_return": -0.010984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.627261, "energy": 15.675658, "activity_lines": [ 25.309091, 25.29621, 25.317406, 25.363474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.1247, "volume": 4623, "typical_volume": 12156.45, "trend": 25.400728, "fair_value": 24.898112, "relative_strength": -8.287456, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.90905, "energy": 37.781342, "activity_lines": [ 25.244095, 25.270019, 25.29615, 25.344995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.1197, "volume": 13413, "typical_volume": 12222.75, "trend": 25.391251, "fair_value": 24.900719, "relative_strength": -8.978372, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.396524, "energy": 61.346756, "activity_lines": [ 25.189107, 25.242685, 25.276597, 25.326864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.2516, "volume": 4864, "typical_volume": 11462.2, "trend": 25.384016, "fair_value": 24.904799, "relative_strength": -11.290549, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.105528, "energy": 53.315784, "activity_lines": [ 25.19702, 25.240267, 25.270869, 25.317854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }