{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0310d261-966a-4c86-ab02-9a5a0dc8629a", "symbol": "ABAN", "name": "Aban Offshore Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.962, "architecture_energy": 18.332, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 42.875, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.58, "rotation_up": 36.28, "upward_expansion": 23.04, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 15.91, "downward_expansion": 57.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.707333, 15.762, 16.294571, 17.498946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.99, "trend_reference": 18.887, "distance_from_trend": 0.0584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.030449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.574956, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.403938, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.059294, "excess_performance": -0.015585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.574956, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076953, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.886335, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 646531, "relative_activity": 2.967618, "balance": 3.886335, "dry_up": 1.642818, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083118, "annualized_volatility": 0.596773, "from_high_reference": -0.616609, "from_low_reference": 0.550815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.887, "fair_value_reference": 47.030449, "structural_low": 12.89, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.041778, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.059004, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.310082, "worst_return": -0.38817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.06562, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111316, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.491539, "worst_return": -0.428456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.123942, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.214254, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094211, "worst_return": -0.540882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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17.028857, 18.219312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.62, "volume": 424045, "typical_volume": 197645.3, "trend": 19.188333, "fair_value": 47.474615, "relative_strength": -46.746486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.110892, "energy": 63.859989, "activity_lines": [ 14.335333, 14.926182, 16.63519, 17.905312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.93, "volume": 165611, "typical_volume": 188389.5, "trend": 18.978, "fair_value": 47.316474, "relative_strength": -43.0285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.772628, "energy": 56.362626, "activity_lines": [ 14.526, 14.786, 16.294428, 17.630581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.79, "volume": 195443, "typical_volume": 185871.2, "trend": 18.842333, "fair_value": 47.160641, "relative_strength": -40.068907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.041197, "energy": 45.339177, "activity_lines": [ 14.980667, 14.873091, 16.070667, 17.424903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.99, "volume": 646531, "typical_volume": 217861.9, "trend": 18.887, "fair_value": 47.030449, "relative_strength": -23.403938, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.962151, "energy": 18.331833, "activity_lines": [ 16.707333, 15.762, 16.294571, 17.498946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }