{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0312f50b-c9c3-47b9-91c8-02ef11e07611", "symbol": "XDWH", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Health Care UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.468, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.402, "architecture_energy": 53.998, "architecture_maturity": 21.55, "architecture_confidence": 71.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.0, "rotation_up": 65.25, "upward_expansion": 83.75, "deceleration": 62.21, "rotation_down": 17.8, "downward_expansion": 8.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.939999, 52.578908, 51.075476, 50.467376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.189999, "trend_reference": 50.080667, "distance_from_trend": 0.062086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.458205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097647, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.991584, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052226, "excess_performance": -0.118666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097647, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125765, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063642, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052226, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.925729, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108285, "relative_activity": 1.110495, "balance": 1.925729, "dry_up": 1.322372, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031361, "annualized_volatility": 0.155735, "from_high_reference": -0.031148, "from_low_reference": 0.242177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.080667, "fair_value_reference": 48.458205, "structural_low": 46.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.003923, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.003719, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.078931, "worst_return": -0.064817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.016322, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.024563, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.055704, "worst_return": -0.067761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054516, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.100122, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.083032, "worst_return": -0.028897, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.110689, "energy": 75.275122, "activity_lines": [ 51.692666, 50.426545, 49.426, 49.477054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.650002, "volume": 144847, "typical_volume": 93836.9, "trend": 49.723333, "fair_value": 48.255289, "relative_strength": -6.382526, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.075883, "energy": 75.247711, "activity_lines": [ 52.225, 51.012636, 49.7525, 49.672903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.919998, "volume": 121229, "typical_volume": 92620.25, "trend": 49.826333, "fair_value": 48.305032, "relative_strength": -4.479485, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.244513, "energy": 85.045817, "activity_lines": [ 52.678666, 51.551818, 50.096809, 49.87914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.18, "volume": 111613, "typical_volume": 92199.05, "trend": 49.934, "fair_value": 48.356603, "relative_strength": -3.755089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.743185, "energy": 83.73887, "activity_lines": [ 53.014666, 52.023, 50.457881, 50.095505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.529999, "volume": 174654, "typical_volume": 97143.15, "trend": 50.022, "fair_value": 48.408782, "relative_strength": -5.486172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.81728, "energy": 56.128635, "activity_lines": [ 52.868, 52.273999, 50.742381, 50.262989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.189999, "volume": 108285, "typical_volume": 97510.55, "trend": 50.080667, "fair_value": 48.458205, "relative_strength": -6.991584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.401536, "energy": 53.998036, "activity_lines": [ 52.939999, 52.578908, 51.075476, 50.467376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }