{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0315187d-81da-4b0f-900e-a933df48e563", "symbol": "688011", "name": "Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.332, "architecture_energy": 22.836, "architecture_maturity": 19.708, "architecture_confidence": 58.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.41, "rotation_up": 52.07, "upward_expansion": 32.56, "deceleration": 35.23, "rotation_down": 19.62, "downward_expansion": 21.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.804, 65.107818, 64.149428, 65.057785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 81.150002, "trend_reference": 66.442667, "distance_from_trend": 0.221354, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.416282, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.583056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 43.941068, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.231224, "excess_performance": 0.274428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.221354, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.583056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.439411, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.231224, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.909387, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15414824, "relative_activity": 1.819638, "balance": 0.909387, "dry_up": 1.33147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105872, "annualized_volatility": 0.631375, "from_high_reference": -0.010004, "from_low_reference": 1.408012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.442667, "fair_value_reference": 31.416282, "structural_low": 47.060001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032414, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.003323, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.422972, "worst_return": -0.14619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.154331, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.141223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.317365, "worst_return": -0.31666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085434, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066909, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.166032, "worst_return": -0.371597, "sufficient": true 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"activity_lines": [ 63.295999, 62.168909, 63.890952, 65.071742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.639999, "volume": 10441146, "typical_volume": 8189244.65, "trend": 65.292667, "fair_value": 30.576026, "relative_strength": 6.842794, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.522566, "energy": 25.788891, "activity_lines": [ 61.093999, 60.920727, 62.930666, 64.468408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.209999, "volume": 12002590, "typical_volume": 8167828.8, "trend": 65.666333, "fair_value": 30.81109, "relative_strength": 16.408337, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.021417, "energy": 16.622187, "activity_lines": [ 61.369999, 61.104181, 62.688285, 64.269527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.599998, "volume": 7258933, "typical_volume": 8140389.6, "trend": 65.865667, "fair_value": 31.050256, "relative_strength": 15.473137, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.763302, "energy": 19.960407, "activity_lines": [ 61.651999, 61.401999, 62.528142, 64.071699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.150002, "volume": 15414824, "typical_volume": 8471368.25, "trend": 66.442667, "fair_value": 31.416282, "relative_strength": 43.941068, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.33163, "energy": 22.836471, "activity_lines": [ 67.804, 65.107818, 64.149428, 65.057785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }