{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03185b06-cb79-4bbb-b19c-496e8d4cb5a1", "symbol": "CNQ", "name": "Canadian Natural Resources Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.58, "architecture_energy": 41.413, "architecture_maturity": 13.748, "architecture_confidence": 70.055, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.05, "rotation_up": 66.27, "upward_expansion": 74.21, "deceleration": 66.3, "rotation_down": 11.14, "downward_expansion": 5.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.183334, 62.07357, 61.975135, 61.957119 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.450001, "trend_reference": 60.516465, "distance_from_trend": 0.048475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.697357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388483, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.438173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.198984, "excess_performance": 0.078563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096549, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388483, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064382, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051404, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.198984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.404517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26823900, "relative_activity": 0.543426, "balance": 2.404517, "dry_up": 0.752778, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059588, "annualized_volatility": 0.336165, "from_high_reference": -0.106212, "from_low_reference": 0.617988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.516465, "fair_value_reference": 45.697357, "structural_low": 52.057608, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.035189, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": 0.01751, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.218369, "worst_return": -0.220482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.09045, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.049813, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.365797, "worst_return": -0.200898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.193455, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.204722, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.523015, "worst_return": -0.01249, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 46.263143, "energy": 21.748124, "activity_lines": [ 61.317333, 60.622599, 61.499141, 61.237853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.779999, "volume": 30190700, "typical_volume": 54617690.0, "trend": 59.875423, "fair_value": 45.524755, "relative_strength": 16.097451, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.891628, "energy": 39.618764, "activity_lines": [ 63.664, 61.65309, 61.897776, 61.726501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.450001, "volume": 26823900, "typical_volume": 49360740.0, "trend": 60.516465, "fair_value": 45.697357, "relative_strength": 6.438173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.579682, "energy": 41.413224, "activity_lines": [ 64.183334, 62.07357, 61.975135, 61.957119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }