{ "ticker": { "uuid": "031a2c18-c68e-48ca-90a5-de0659902b53", "symbol": "K", "name": "Kinross Gold Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.283, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.254, "architecture_energy": 41.379, "architecture_maturity": 37.417, "architecture_confidence": 88.162, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.95, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 8.12, "deceleration": 54.93, "rotation_down": 46.62, "downward_expansion": 76.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.69, 34.700728, 36.737664, 38.445967 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.52, "trend_reference": 40.826278, "distance_from_trend": -0.05649, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.024653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.832135, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.022298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11845, "excess_performance": -0.238871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.832135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.491607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031646, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17550400, "relative_activity": 1.445231, "balance": 1.031646, "dry_up": 1.317109, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091948, "annualized_volatility": 0.608896, "from_high_reference": -0.279061, "from_low_reference": 0.523745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.826278, "fair_value_reference": 21.024653, "structural_low": 31.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005053, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005286, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.203704, "worst_return": -0.247405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08031, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.056158, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.252566, "worst_return": -0.137889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.115867, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.156666, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.377705, "worst_return": -0.366654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 65.150036, "activity_lines": [ 33.592667, 34.79091, 37.404445, 39.178072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.32, "volume": 17755500, "typical_volume": 12396635.0, "trend": 40.986835, "fair_value": 20.819902, "relative_strength": -21.872064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.482701, "energy": 68.715593, "activity_lines": [ 33.039334, 34.12091, 36.75298, 38.605118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.52, "volume": 17550400, "typical_volume": 12143665.0, "trend": 40.826278, "fair_value": 21.024653, "relative_strength": -10.022298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.254207, "energy": 41.379138, "activity_lines": [ 34.69, 34.700728, 36.737664, 38.445967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }