{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03290b10-cc0b-4fd7-80bf-8584fc6eab2c", "symbol": "00905", "name": "Franklin Templeton SinoAm Taiwan Smart ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.228, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.448, "architecture_energy": 24.228, "architecture_maturity": 71.086, "architecture_confidence": 77.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.15, "rotation_up": 22.12, "upward_expansion": 55.66, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 32.94, "downward_expansion": 19.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.026825, 25.604748, 25.403402, 24.202111 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.299999, "trend_reference": 22.467337, "distance_from_trend": 0.126079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.996852, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.807549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.565944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.387537, "excess_performance": 0.008226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.807549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.387537, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426966, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5469348, "relative_activity": 0.575128, "balance": 0.426966, "dry_up": 1.422782, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069839, "annualized_volatility": 0.317544, "from_high_reference": -0.102837, "from_low_reference": 0.886739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.467337, "fair_value_reference": 13.996852, "structural_low": 17.737518, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030004, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005774, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.214142, "worst_return": -0.020896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043269, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295952, "worst_return": -0.043415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.07227, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07227, "worst_return": 0.07227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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61.913545, "activity_lines": [ 26.762917, 26.595284, 24.946035, 23.402219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.620001, "volume": 21900333, "typical_volume": 9367656.5, "trend": 21.623828, "fair_value": 13.683134, "relative_strength": -0.761691, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.962141, "energy": 43.78428, "activity_lines": [ 26.081093, 26.30115, 25.073301, 23.613371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.07, "volume": 10162899, "typical_volume": 9339806.2, "trend": 21.9219, "fair_value": 13.788179, "relative_strength": -1.231224, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.04202, "energy": 34.696221, "activity_lines": [ 25.634347, 26.092471, 25.222187, 23.835704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.49, "volume": 16588858, "typical_volume": 9528088.0, "trend": 22.188798, "fair_value": 13.890389, "relative_strength": -2.29443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.169095, "energy": 24.275614, "activity_lines": [ 25.144867, 25.7667, 25.287312, 24.001388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 5469348, "typical_volume": 9509791.5, "trend": 22.467337, "fair_value": 13.996852, "relative_strength": -1.565944, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.44763, "energy": 24.227663, "activity_lines": [ 25.026825, 25.604748, 25.403402, 24.202111 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }