{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03354561-d667-4ac5-aeda-422169ea3d29", "symbol": "2539", "name": "Sakura Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.444, "architecture_energy": 18.325, "architecture_maturity": 23.265, "architecture_confidence": 50.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.94, "rotation_up": 39.33, "upward_expansion": 33.5, "deceleration": 46.0, "rotation_down": 15.97, "downward_expansion": 41.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.97, 41.077272, 40.343809, 41.578924 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.299999, "trend_reference": 43.433333, "distance_from_trend": -0.049117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.934365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080882, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.100628, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.137787, "excess_performance": -0.579159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.371006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113073, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.693142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6488878, "relative_activity": 1.006947, "balance": 1.693142, "dry_up": 1.005959, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064444, "annualized_volatility": 0.235103, "from_high_reference": -0.285928, "from_low_reference": 0.247734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.433333, "fair_value_reference": 44.934365, "structural_low": 33.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004156, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.054262, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162063, "worst_return": -0.175916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019487, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.126393, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.196941, "worst_return": -0.126338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08049, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052098, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.311663, "worst_return": -0.012308, "sufficient": false 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"volume": 7271713, "typical_volume": 5981831.5, "trend": 44.285, "fair_value": 44.596754, "relative_strength": -37.83504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.432799, "energy": 28.755537, "activity_lines": [ 39.683332, 39.094544, 40.278571, 42.094301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.549999, "volume": 3714217, "typical_volume": 5976636.9, "trend": 44.02, "fair_value": 44.678021, "relative_strength": -38.59, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.18976, "energy": 21.488147, "activity_lines": [ 40.036666, 39.439999, 40.11119, 41.853333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.650002, "volume": 8906901, "typical_volume": 6123223.45, "trend": 43.82, "fair_value": 44.771387, "relative_strength": -33.473471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.37199, "energy": 18.568835, "activity_lines": [ 41.05, 40.122727, 40.186904, 41.764946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.299999, "volume": 6820052, "typical_volume": 6264844.7, "trend": 43.663333, "fair_value": 44.861719, "relative_strength": -32.99884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.80736, "energy": 19.102849, "activity_lines": [ 41.976666, 40.842727, 40.349047, 41.731397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.299999, "volume": 6488878, "typical_volume": 6444111.6, "trend": 43.433333, "fair_value": 44.934365, "relative_strength": -37.100628, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.443646, "energy": 18.325008, "activity_lines": [ 41.97, 41.077272, 40.343809, 41.578924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }