{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0335cd66-351a-4442-8a06-e62be81900db", "symbol": "AIQ", "name": "Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.618, "architecture_energy": 30.04, "architecture_maturity": 71.791, "architecture_confidence": 91.379, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.62, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 55.9, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 35.03, "downward_expansion": 19.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.804666, 37.530182, 37.276333, 35.694968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.349998, "trend_reference": 33.792, "distance_from_trend": 0.134884, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.024966, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.419058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.641601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.29386, "excess_performance": 0.173438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.134884, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08051, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.419058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066416, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.29386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.321524, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22300, "relative_activity": 0.853915, "balance": 1.321524, "dry_up": 1.360329, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057126, "annualized_volatility": 0.306456, "from_high_reference": -0.067591, "from_low_reference": 0.466104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.792, "fair_value_reference": 27.024966, "structural_low": 27.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.00595, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006914, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.001629, "worst_return": -0.0762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.123668, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07527, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.306713, "worst_return": -0.059376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.229126, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.130053, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229126, "worst_return": 0.229126, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04577, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020296, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081195, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 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"relative_strength": 1.741409, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.592745, "energy": 27.614119, "activity_lines": [ 36.939334, 37.973091, 36.896286, 35.227462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.869999, "volume": 33700, "typical_volume": 25540.0, "trend": 33.573, "fair_value": 26.927337, "relative_strength": 3.197905, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.517085, "energy": 27.699275, "activity_lines": [ 36.352667, 37.509455, 36.984952, 35.386774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.349998, "volume": 22300, "typical_volume": 26115.0, "trend": 33.792, "fair_value": 27.024966, "relative_strength": 6.641601, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.618145, "energy": 30.03979, "activity_lines": [ 36.804666, 37.530182, 37.276333, 35.694968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }