{ "ticker": { "uuid": "033a7f1b-d574-4fbd-8fb8-b22dddf97138", "symbol": "H1DB34", "name": "HDFC Bank Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.665, "architecture_energy": 53.77, "architecture_maturity": 69.444, "architecture_confidence": 69.403, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.37, "rotation_up": 10.18, "upward_expansion": 13.92, "deceleration": 56.26, "rotation_down": 68.05, "downward_expansion": 72.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.583334, 25.207041, 25.181583, 26.079775 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.41, "trend_reference": 27.957643, "distance_from_trend": -0.126894, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.074602, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261971, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.136651, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.312588, "excess_performance": -0.25554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126894, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143049, "read": "Falling" 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22.842164, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.005526, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.016788, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.146629, "worst_return": -0.193548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05847, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.082362, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.195597, "worst_return": -0.269061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051602, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.097218, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.19725, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.367105, "energy": 36.772559, "activity_lines": [ 26.519667, 25.642378, 25.720713, 27.239382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.799999, "volume": 633, "typical_volume": 629.9, "trend": 29.465977, "fair_value": 33.225868, "relative_strength": -26.333798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.608772, "energy": 32.428323, "activity_lines": [ 26.781333, 25.935825, 25.73924, 27.042222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.700001, "volume": 2290, "typical_volume": 722.85, "trend": 28.90931, "fair_value": 33.174765, "relative_strength": -33.944137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.488191, "energy": 27.948402, "activity_lines": [ 25.828, 25.638505, 25.492815, 26.670224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 722.25, "trend": 28.352643, "fair_value": 33.122721, "relative_strength": -34.331537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.283203, "energy": 50.635054, "activity_lines": [ 24.995334, 25.352667, 25.288247, 26.334139 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.41, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 722.6, "trend": 27.957643, "fair_value": 33.074602, "relative_strength": -29.136651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.664601, "energy": 53.769954, "activity_lines": [ 24.583334, 25.207041, 25.181583, 26.079775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }