{ "ticker": { "uuid": "033d9bd7-ab28-4ba1-b19d-80db9e919520", "symbol": "SDAX", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short Germany 40 ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.674, "architecture_energy": 90.724, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.196, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 12.94, "upward_expansion": 20.46, "deceleration": 37.93, "rotation_down": 79.77, "downward_expansion": 96.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.66575, 0.707968, 0.762514, 0.813826 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.568, "trend_reference": 0.861533, "distance_from_trend": -0.34071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.245124, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.747007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.513222, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.370637, "excess_performance": -0.421872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.34071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094299, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.747007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080832, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370637, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.682425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59373, "relative_activity": 2.035793, "balance": 2.682425, "dry_up": 3.309909, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118669, "annualized_volatility": 0.607357, "from_high_reference": -0.586006, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.861533, "fair_value_reference": 2.245124, "structural_low": 0.568, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.060215, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.084796, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.373892, "worst_return": -0.279235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.169088, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.210236, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.217301, "worst_return": -0.342021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.260859, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.288149, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.109548, "worst_return": -0.500231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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0.757383, 0.778177, 0.835245, 0.865318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.77225, "volume": 325114, "typical_volume": 29477.1, "trend": 0.888533, "fair_value": 2.324424, "relative_strength": -25.12254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.577338, "energy": 72.319042, "activity_lines": [ 0.757567, 0.773086, 0.824042, 0.857371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7375, "volume": 97, "typical_volume": 29410.3, "trend": 0.880942, "fair_value": 2.300741, "relative_strength": -28.726789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.976782, "energy": 73.112066, "activity_lines": [ 0.749067, 0.763332, 0.809856, 0.847627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.66025, "volume": 1544, "typical_volume": 27326.25, "trend": 0.871217, "fair_value": 2.27356, "relative_strength": -36.118398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.089838, "energy": 75.6872, "activity_lines": [ 0.71785, 0.742777, 0.789708, 0.833389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.568, "volume": 59373, "typical_volume": 29164.55, "trend": 0.861533, "fair_value": 2.245124, "relative_strength": -44.513222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.674035, "energy": 90.724475, "activity_lines": [ 0.66575, 0.707968, 0.762514, 0.813826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }