{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0340ea5e-c3b0-4dbe-a31d-3f124a39fd29", "symbol": "600765", "name": "AVIC Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.696, "architecture_energy": 53.931, "architecture_maturity": 85.924, "architecture_confidence": 87.442, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.41, "rotation_up": 28.96, "upward_expansion": 9.94, "deceleration": 60.85, "rotation_down": 43.88, "downward_expansion": 78.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.344, 13.360909, 13.991644, 14.870853 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.44, "trend_reference": 16.209986, "distance_from_trend": -0.170881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.908373, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.545131, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.281266, "excess_performance": -0.238062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128529, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063669, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281266, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36784, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71171726, "relative_activity": 0.93717, "balance": 0.36784, "dry_up": 1.088641, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062331, "annualized_volatility": 0.330632, "from_high_reference": -0.389859, "from_low_reference": 0.065821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.209986, "fair_value_reference": 17.908373, "structural_low": 12.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.02309, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.0118, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.191938, "worst_return": -0.203644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032297, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.091406, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.192232, "worst_return": -0.285849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.089632, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.097937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126419, "worst_return": -0.148566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 13.412, 13.786968, 14.748449, 15.739209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.79, "volume": 82743252, "typical_volume": 91682504.15, "trend": 16.715619, "fair_value": 18.139693, "relative_strength": -19.375754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.979454, "energy": 70.098958, "activity_lines": [ 13.164, 13.514387, 14.461995, 15.47734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.2, "volume": 96109331, "typical_volume": 84345450.15, "trend": 16.554622, "fair_value": 18.061908, "relative_strength": -17.364633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.110566, "energy": 63.702736, "activity_lines": [ 13.134667, 13.385273, 14.256151, 15.250526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.63, "volume": 80675512, "typical_volume": 78578259.8, "trend": 16.400296, "fair_value": 17.98462, "relative_strength": -14.570728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.569423, "energy": 59.758454, "activity_lines": [ 13.295333, 13.378182, 14.123254, 15.06184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.44, "volume": 71171726, "typical_volume": 75943268.2, "trend": 16.209986, "fair_value": 17.908373, "relative_strength": -17.545131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.696281, "energy": 53.930784, "activity_lines": [ 13.344, 13.360909, 13.991644, 14.870853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }