{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03419c63-3d27-4792-a9b7-f9ebce788481", "symbol": "DIS", "name": "Walt Disney Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.36, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.711, "architecture_energy": 12.764, "architecture_maturity": 63.422, "architecture_confidence": 65.959, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.0, "rotation_up": 23.74, "upward_expansion": 14.64, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 39.31, "downward_expansion": 66.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.988, 98.679216, 99.709085, 100.316538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 104.91, "trend_reference": 102.029275, "distance_from_trend": 0.028234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 101.74321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.083107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034867, "excess_performance": -0.160491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031125, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120831, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017657, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.239093, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74062955, "relative_activity": 1.537412, "balance": 1.239093, "dry_up": 1.240417, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047184, "annualized_volatility": 0.274129, "from_high_reference": -0.118199, "from_low_reference": 0.138038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.029275, "fair_value_reference": 101.74321, "structural_low": 92.185, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.010207, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.023454, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.21533, "worst_return": -0.177359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013514, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.041839, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.351151, "worst_return": -0.194763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013259, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.065364, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.267883, "worst_return": -0.339741, 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100.488847, 100.881996, 102.129826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 95.62, "volume": 50956072, "typical_volume": 48316024.15, "trend": 103.992942, "fair_value": 101.403435, "relative_strength": -20.183546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.902444, "energy": 40.497312, "activity_lines": [ 98.374562, 99.447788, 100.357671, 101.556889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.67, "volume": 45151445, "typical_volume": 47758083.7, "trend": 103.540608, "fair_value": 101.483527, "relative_strength": -16.557469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.095637, "energy": 49.849428, "activity_lines": [ 97.897936, 98.900602, 100.076012, 101.148957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 94.85, "volume": 54441924, "typical_volume": 47496734.5, "trend": 102.916942, "fair_value": 101.552117, "relative_strength": -17.855501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.025234, "energy": 55.933701, "activity_lines": [ 96.587744, 98.013684, 99.56564, 100.588273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.19, "volume": 65366043, "typical_volume": 48386493.1, "trend": 102.394942, "fair_value": 101.628232, "relative_strength": -16.989823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.877145, "energy": 53.831617, "activity_lines": [ 96.273333, 97.499053, 99.214743, 100.154276 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.91, "volume": 74062955, "typical_volume": 48173780.85, "trend": 102.029275, "fair_value": 101.74321, "relative_strength": -12.083107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.711011, "energy": 12.76413, "activity_lines": [ 98.988, 98.679216, 99.709085, 100.316538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }