{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03431e09-3cc5-4401-9226-1661d77c0fdd", "symbol": "SKK", "name": "Stakk Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.432, "architecture_energy": 15.525, "architecture_maturity": 21.769, "architecture_confidence": 46.43, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.41, "rotation_up": 21.79, "upward_expansion": 22.71, "deceleration": 61.16, "rotation_down": 51.4, "downward_expansion": 34.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0222, 0.023564, 0.023376, 0.022811 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.021, "trend_reference": 0.0231, "distance_from_trend": -0.090909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.012804, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.64005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.446275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192308, "excess_performance": -0.256013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.64005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330208, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100444794, "relative_activity": 2.627941, "balance": 0.330208, "dry_up": 1.771428, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228938, "annualized_volatility": 0.962652, "from_high_reference": -0.716216, "from_low_reference": 3.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0231, "fair_value_reference": 0.012804, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.073087, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.3, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.301657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.4, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.421206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.575758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 5.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.297297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": 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"relative_strength": -2.439408, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.271294, "energy": 19.117285, "activity_lines": [ 0.0256, 0.025164, 0.023357, 0.023344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.024, "volume": 43079251, "typical_volume": 32449545.15, "trend": 0.0246, "fair_value": 0.012506, "relative_strength": -11.099817, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.844733, "energy": 7.203643, "activity_lines": [ 0.024933, 0.025127, 0.023548, 0.02329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.022, "volume": 71910885, "typical_volume": 33020308.3, "trend": 0.024167, "fair_value": 0.012609, "relative_strength": -19.200751, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.163679, "energy": 4.023398, "activity_lines": [ 0.023867, 0.024673, 0.023529, 0.023123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.022, "volume": 55394119, "typical_volume": 34464239.5, "trend": 0.023667, "fair_value": 0.012712, "relative_strength": -21.892235, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.88909, "energy": 9.558057, "activity_lines": [ 0.0232, 0.024236, 0.023505, 0.022983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.021, "volume": 100444794, "typical_volume": 38221856.15, "trend": 0.0231, "fair_value": 0.012804, "relative_strength": -28.446275, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.431661, "energy": 15.525322, "activity_lines": [ 0.0222, 0.023564, 0.023376, 0.022811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }