{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0345db8a-ae54-492a-93c1-700e03d18e8a", "symbol": "USPG", "name": "UBS Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.587, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.188, "architecture_energy": 63.443, "architecture_maturity": 63.267, "architecture_confidence": 69.629, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 54.21, "upward_expansion": 81.01, "deceleration": 69.82, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 10.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 3740.133333, 3721.068182, 3687.733333, 3617.834308 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3839.75, "trend_reference": 3540.284351, "distance_from_trend": 0.084588, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2933.686189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308848, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.718557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120091, "excess_performance": 0.068855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084588, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03194, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010158, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027186, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.363013, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15467, "relative_activity": 1.476148, "balance": 1.363013, "dry_up": 0.956413, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01735, "annualized_volatility": 0.1288, "from_high_reference": -0.004343, "from_low_reference": 0.219871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3540.284351, "fair_value_reference": 2933.686189, "structural_low": 3154.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011846, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.005792, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.061774, "worst_return": -0.087265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.047622, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.009211, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.101519, "worst_return": -0.073833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.069319, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02597, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.145314, "worst_return": -0.171614, 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56.912166, "activity_lines": [ 3701.65, 3700.913636, 3653.253571, 3587.563388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3675.5, "volume": 9232, "typical_volume": 10137.85, "trend": 3527.578328, "fair_value": 2923.37157, "relative_strength": -1.34974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.944728, "energy": 46.277639, "activity_lines": [ 3694.466667, 3695.795455, 3663.579762, 3597.6942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3839.75, "volume": 15467, "typical_volume": 10477.95, "trend": 3540.284351, "fair_value": 2933.686189, "relative_strength": 2.718557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.188045, "energy": 63.443385, "activity_lines": [ 3740.133333, 3721.068182, 3687.733333, 3617.834308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }