{ "ticker": { "uuid": "034d2993-069b-4a7c-a352-dfdccba4c824", "symbol": "MRTN", "name": "Marten Transport Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.48, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -3.502, "architecture_energy": 19.475, "architecture_maturity": 59.537, "architecture_confidence": 92.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.76, "rotation_up": 19.39, "upward_expansion": 51.13, "deceleration": 82.3, "rotation_down": 42.09, "downward_expansion": 29.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.684, 16.383163, 16.404003, 15.752611 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 14.850258, "distance_from_trend": 0.006716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.268883, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020885, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.188109, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111992, "excess_performance": -0.075462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020885, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01669, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001881, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056435, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.462924, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3971839, "relative_activity": 0.983393, "balance": 1.462924, "dry_up": 0.895777, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075843, "annualized_volatility": 0.344577, "from_high_reference": -0.188225, "from_low_reference": 0.62092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.850258, "fair_value_reference": 15.268883, "structural_low": 11.322597, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023718, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.037072, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.220854, "worst_return": -0.03471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095703, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.115597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388191, "worst_return": 0.046413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000118, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05098, "worst_return": -0.00461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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17.319835, 17.244726, 16.247986, 15.39983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.65, "volume": 2850039, "typical_volume": 4014306.4, "trend": 14.496433, "fair_value": 15.392101, "relative_strength": 23.222103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.784872, "energy": 54.825459, "activity_lines": [ 17.401333, 17.371585, 16.479397, 15.616808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.3, "volume": 3432545, "typical_volume": 4048664.55, "trend": 14.662016, "fair_value": 15.358851, "relative_strength": 15.51235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.980661, "energy": 37.63334, "activity_lines": [ 17.062667, 17.214379, 16.562352, 15.733167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.79, "volume": 4217430, "typical_volume": 4081088.3, "trend": 14.776605, "fair_value": 15.312865, "relative_strength": 4.19574, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.270557, "energy": 17.40162, "activity_lines": [ 16.257333, 16.767475, 16.483035, 15.741424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 3971839, "typical_volume": 4038912.05, "trend": 14.850258, "fair_value": 15.268883, "relative_strength": 0.188109, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.501893, "energy": 19.475353, "activity_lines": [ 15.684, 16.383163, 16.404003, 15.752611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }