{ "ticker": { "uuid": "035160e0-b8aa-4eb9-aac8-2ba683068f49", "symbol": "K75", "name": "Koh Brothers Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -55.889, "architecture_energy": 67.098, "architecture_maturity": 22.015, "architecture_confidence": 76.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.15, "rotation_up": 17.72, "upward_expansion": 22.13, "deceleration": 43.58, "rotation_down": 75.83, "downward_expansion": 66.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.309333, 0.323182, 0.356357, 0.356764 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.350082, "distance_from_trend": -0.200188, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.200663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395378, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.457595, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076995, "excess_performance": -0.23183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.119162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.740697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.308085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2487600, "relative_activity": 0.369396, "balance": 0.308085, "dry_up": 0.208004, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128385, "annualized_volatility": 0.617478, "from_high_reference": -0.510886, "from_low_reference": 0.144525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.350082, "fair_value_reference": 0.200663, "structural_low": 0.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088606, "worst_return": -0.035214, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009542, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0443, "worst_return": -0.063383, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.044391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037976, "worst_return": -0.126759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.069436, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.019151, "worst_return": -0.11972, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021432, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048272, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128782, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.812894, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090261, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151515, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.138523, "volume": 562600, "typical_volume": 249125.0, "trend": 0.141343, "fair_value": 0.151097, "relative_strength": -1.317292, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.257729, 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"typical_volume": 6713505.0, "trend": 0.345996, "fair_value": 0.197447, "relative_strength": -12.697744, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.225929, "energy": 37.410603, "activity_lines": [ 0.335, 0.350588, 0.374078, 0.364457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.33, "volume": 1108800, "typical_volume": 6646765.0, "trend": 0.348515, "fair_value": 0.198662, "relative_strength": -12.36617, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.938256, "energy": 49.236306, "activity_lines": [ 0.331667, 0.343384, 0.370384, 0.363425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.315, "volume": 964600, "typical_volume": 6651920.0, "trend": 0.349719, "fair_value": 0.199774, "relative_strength": -16.713638, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.137922, "energy": 52.385835, "activity_lines": [ 0.325667, 0.335636, 0.365088, 0.361262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 2487600, "typical_volume": 6734240.0, "trend": 0.350082, "fair_value": 0.200663, "relative_strength": -26.457595, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.889465, "energy": 67.098458, "activity_lines": [ 0.309333, 0.323182, 0.356357, 0.356764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }