{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03539ac5-246c-449a-a016-e13206f43b04", "symbol": "XM29", "name": "Xtrackers Target Maturity Sept", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 76.27, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.036, "architecture_energy": 22.947, "architecture_maturity": 47.495, "architecture_confidence": 74.034, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.18, "rotation_up": 26.75, "upward_expansion": 57.26, "deceleration": 87.78, "rotation_down": 30.7, "downward_expansion": 18.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.221933, 9.228727, 9.219014, 9.209245 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.231, "trend_reference": 9.206167, "distance_from_trend": 0.002697, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.10333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.07002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001946, "excess_performance": -0.172838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001719, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014025, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001946, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.025208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8, "relative_activity": 0.000959, "balance": 1.025208, "dry_up": 1.579052, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0032, "annualized_volatility": 0.023051, "from_high_reference": -0.010717, "from_low_reference": 0.019212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.206167, "fair_value_reference": 9.10333, "structural_low": 9.057, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004643, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 8.937, "volume": 3394, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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7753.35, "trend": 9.201167, "fair_value": 9.097845, "relative_strength": -13.743988, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.012057, "energy": 72.4748, "activity_lines": [ 9.2476, 9.233364, 9.209186, 9.20534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.217, "volume": 14242, "typical_volume": 7912.25, "trend": 9.202833, "fair_value": 9.099247, "relative_strength": -12.385353, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.926283, "energy": 58.384358, "activity_lines": [ 9.2398, 9.232691, 9.211424, 9.206361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.208, "volume": 10492, "typical_volume": 7680.5, "trend": 9.204067, "fair_value": 9.100512, "relative_strength": -11.952751, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.524237, "energy": 28.709535, "activity_lines": [ 9.228067, 9.229945, 9.213029, 9.206695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.218, "volume": 27926, "typical_volume": 8425.6, "trend": 9.2054, "fair_value": 9.101862, "relative_strength": -12.052519, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.216493, "energy": 20.253767, "activity_lines": [ 9.221467, 9.228345, 9.215581, 9.207594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.231, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 8338.55, "trend": 9.206167, "fair_value": 9.10333, "relative_strength": -14.07002, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.036291, "energy": 22.946562, "activity_lines": [ 9.221933, 9.228727, 9.219014, 9.209245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }