{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0355a334-9424-461c-bd23-0d4e9b4f4545", "symbol": "002775", "name": "Guangdong Wenke Green Technology Corp.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.404, "architecture_energy": 19.925, "architecture_maturity": 70.854, "architecture_confidence": 83.301, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.78, "rotation_up": 25.06, "upward_expansion": 15.25, "deceleration": 43.71, "rotation_down": 36.87, "downward_expansion": 62.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.698, 3.665091, 3.762238, 3.860688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.85, "trend_reference": 4.026, "distance_from_trend": -0.043716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.595385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.736114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114943, "excess_performance": -0.122342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100590511, "relative_activity": 1.404066, "balance": 1.356931, "dry_up": 1.643152, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114885, "annualized_volatility": 0.442986, "from_high_reference": -0.398438, "from_low_reference": 0.323024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.026, "fair_value_reference": 3.595385, "structural_low": 2.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.022901, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.267206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041315, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004071, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.603774, "worst_return": -0.151832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040761, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.076404, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.632075, "worst_return": -0.276451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.319703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043353, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.152231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085165, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 3.597821, "relative_strength": -23.774641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.882193, "energy": 77.056234, "activity_lines": [ 3.442667, 3.649091, 3.785286, 3.913183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.54, "volume": 115722366, "typical_volume": 63657391.15, "trend": 4.049667, "fair_value": 3.596218, "relative_strength": -17.169559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.866727, "energy": 64.916947, "activity_lines": [ 3.429333, 3.604364, 3.750714, 3.878753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.96, "volume": 167323572, "typical_volume": 69288250.6, "trend": 4.040333, "fair_value": 3.597115, "relative_strength": -5.342963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.70009, "energy": 35.572931, "activity_lines": [ 3.594, 3.643091, 3.760524, 3.872968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.85, "volume": 100590511, "typical_volume": 71642301.8, "trend": 4.026, "fair_value": 3.595385, "relative_strength": -11.736114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.404002, "energy": 19.925249, "activity_lines": [ 3.698, 3.665091, 3.762238, 3.860688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }