{ "ticker": { "uuid": "035be14b-436e-4324-968e-79c15890c29e", "symbol": "VKA", "name": "Viking Mines Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.349, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.236, "architecture_energy": 55.059, "architecture_maturity": 28.934, "architecture_confidence": 90.846, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.91, "rotation_up": 20.46, "upward_expansion": 12.05, "deceleration": 40.0, "rotation_down": 51.56, "downward_expansion": 83.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0098, 0.010091, 0.010569, 0.011516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.012333, "distance_from_trend": -0.189189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.009638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.813091, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106421, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.941659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40759162, "relative_activity": 0.899441, "balance": 0.941659, "dry_up": 0.598422, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165385, "annualized_volatility": 1.020245, "from_high_reference": -0.583333, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012333, "fair_value_reference": 0.009638, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.310345, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.047944, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.102849, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.109657, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.714286, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.473684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.010667, 0.010673, 0.011564, 0.012168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.01, "volume": 9452151, "typical_volume": 67410461.85, "trend": 0.01225, "fair_value": 0.009657, "relative_strength": -1.419666, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.758374, "energy": 37.872046, "activity_lines": [ 0.010467, 0.010545, 0.011267, 0.012025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 12250578, "typical_volume": 54540536.85, "trend": 0.012317, "fair_value": 0.009651, "relative_strength": -1.87799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.190946, "energy": 34.162142, "activity_lines": [ 0.010333, 0.010436, 0.011012, 0.01188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.009, "volume": 46010708, "typical_volume": 47697182.65, "trend": 0.012317, "fair_value": 0.009644, "relative_strength": -13.978861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.721174, "energy": 55.815515, "activity_lines": [ 0.009867, 0.010164, 0.010719, 0.011666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 40759162, "typical_volume": 45316097.3, "trend": 0.012333, "fair_value": 0.009638, "relative_strength": -7.813091, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.235799, "energy": 55.059054, "activity_lines": [ 0.0098, 0.010091, 0.010569, 0.011516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }