{ "ticker": { "uuid": "035e8da5-69e2-4a25-b395-adb98a2ede10", "symbol": "BCIL", "name": "EXCHANGE LISTED FUNDS TRUST BANCREEK INTERNATIONAL LARGE CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.423, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.133, "architecture_energy": 15.111, "architecture_maturity": 21.497, "architecture_confidence": 73.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.56, "rotation_up": 25.19, "upward_expansion": 46.76, "deceleration": 81.98, "rotation_down": 34.7, "downward_expansion": 29.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.165147, 29.345836, 29.393851, 29.013429 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.01, "trend_reference": 28.578373, "distance_from_trend": 0.050095, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.393957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.537709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08516, "excess_performance": -0.040465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050095, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019259, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08516, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546322, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14130, "relative_activity": 0.325471, "balance": 0.546322, "dry_up": 0.490319, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048377, "annualized_volatility": 0.247695, "from_high_reference": -0.035976, "from_low_reference": 0.176863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.578373, "fair_value_reference": 27.393957, "structural_low": 25.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015988, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.022963, "worst_return": -0.096166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015463, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048579, "worst_return": -0.017654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.094998, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.094998, "worst_return": -0.094998, 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29.223162, 28.813909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.3774, "volume": 13007, "typical_volume": 42729.2, "trend": 28.456558, "fair_value": 27.340127, "relative_strength": -7.842787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.560138, "energy": 30.068002, "activity_lines": [ 29.806385, 29.744832, 29.293834, 28.87684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.7635, "volume": 21275, "typical_volume": 42992.2, "trend": 28.485051, "fair_value": 27.351794, "relative_strength": -7.945802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.218741, "energy": 15.416827, "activity_lines": [ 29.398777, 29.564562, 29.301526, 28.896643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.74, "volume": 18432, "typical_volume": 43505.3, "trend": 28.505736, "fair_value": 27.36308, "relative_strength": -7.10254, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.172726, "energy": 15.681399, "activity_lines": [ 29.078753, 29.416789, 29.306497, 28.913091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.5757, "volume": 31310, "typical_volume": 44378.0, "trend": 28.524726, "fair_value": 27.372859, "relative_strength": -8.221819, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.858674, "energy": 12.397348, "activity_lines": [ 28.842247, 29.244251, 29.287521, 28.917605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.01, "volume": 14130, "typical_volume": 43414.05, "trend": 28.578373, "fair_value": 27.393957, "relative_strength": -6.537709, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.133055, "energy": 15.110668, "activity_lines": [ 29.165147, 29.345836, 29.393851, 29.013429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }