{ "ticker": { "uuid": "037673e2-d3bb-4b4f-ae36-8298ab94331b", "symbol": "MNOV", "name": "MediciNova Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.577, "architecture_energy": 25.069, "architecture_maturity": 29.481, "architecture_confidence": 92.215, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.39, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 4.32, "deceleration": 49.25, "rotation_down": 43.59, "downward_expansion": 72.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.338, 1.343273, 1.353048, 1.377204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.34, "trend_reference": 1.43, "distance_from_trend": -0.062937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.553281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13731, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.833857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1625, "excess_performance": -0.349954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13731, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006457, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168339, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003594, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.006011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165925, "relative_activity": 0.866092, "balance": 1.006011, "dry_up": 0.985559, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080258, "annualized_volatility": 0.386001, "from_high_reference": -0.316327, "from_low_reference": 0.14726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.43, "fair_value_reference": 1.553281, "structural_low": 1.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.041919, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.018429, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.810345, "worst_return": -0.168874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.045113, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.05912, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.31982, "worst_return": -0.393443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007663, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.085209, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.302158, "worst_return": -0.322078, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103825, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.151724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022901, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.31, "volume": 135328, "typical_volume": 96439.0, "trend": 2.2763, "fair_value": 3.385699, "relative_strength": -12.090971, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -14.223547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.333202, "energy": 17.771833, "activity_lines": [ 1.370667, 1.350182, 1.368286, 1.397613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 111071, "typical_volume": 219782.65, "trend": 1.436, "fair_value": 1.567415, "relative_strength": -14.289829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.887263, "energy": 19.957658, "activity_lines": [ 1.356667, 1.344909, 1.362095, 1.390237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.33, "volume": 165310, "typical_volume": 219938.8, "trend": 1.436, "fair_value": 1.560108, "relative_strength": -13.626801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.237124, "energy": 19.611689, "activity_lines": [ 1.346, 1.342545, 1.357048, 1.383398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.34, "volume": 165925, "typical_volume": 191579.05, "trend": 1.43, "fair_value": 1.553281, "relative_strength": -16.833857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.576956, "energy": 25.069274, "activity_lines": [ 1.338, 1.343273, 1.353048, 1.377204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }