{ "ticker": { "uuid": "037d91c8-f152-4044-bacb-da231a798d1d", "symbol": "QRHC", "name": "Quest Resource Holding Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.723, "architecture_energy": 10.82, "architecture_maturity": 21.516, "architecture_confidence": 73.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.0, "rotation_up": 31.43, "upward_expansion": 32.24, "deceleration": 39.31, "rotation_down": 22.2, "downward_expansion": 42.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.35, 1.324182, 1.270571, 1.289032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 1.406833, "distance_from_trend": 0.066224, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.797788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.687356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.578852, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.261084, "excess_performance": -0.448537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122283, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.687356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.306266, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228230, "relative_activity": 1.162382, "balance": 1.031478, "dry_up": 0.587049, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139215, "annualized_volatility": 0.695643, "from_high_reference": -0.377593, "from_low_reference": 0.851852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.406833, "fair_value_reference": 4.797788, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.021949, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.009457, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.225714, "worst_return": -0.352273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.109478, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.178724, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.212245, "worst_return": -0.329545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.145578, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.108634, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.30339, "worst_return": -0.476415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.026393, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.470818, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197819, "worst_return": -0.347143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.731893, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.357955, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145631, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162791, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.31, "volume": 286513, "typical_volume": 170949.95, "trend": 6.284333, "fair_value": 5.317778, "relative_strength": -6.80145, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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260241.4, "trend": 1.5225, "fair_value": 4.980096, "relative_strength": -31.180729, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.989431, "energy": 15.814779, "activity_lines": [ 1.295333, 1.254818, 1.221452, 1.335387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.28, "volume": 89232, "typical_volume": 261629.8, "trend": 1.4935, "fair_value": 4.940994, "relative_strength": -31.951004, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.986777, "energy": 11.398553, "activity_lines": [ 1.288667, 1.266364, 1.223286, 1.319742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.35, "volume": 75446, "typical_volume": 258977.65, "trend": 1.4685, "fair_value": 4.905673, "relative_strength": -24.174768, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.119462, "energy": 7.006509, "activity_lines": [ 1.304, 1.288, 1.234119, 1.310484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.23, "volume": 95568, "typical_volume": 260620.45, "trend": 1.443833, "fair_value": 4.868814, "relative_strength": -28.697362, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.211796, "energy": 12.397446, "activity_lines": [ 1.280667, 1.284182, 1.235476, 1.295097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.27, "volume": 61817, "typical_volume": 246397.5, "trend": 1.420167, "fair_value": 4.832724, "relative_strength": -25.75332, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.641632, "energy": 11.651149, "activity_lines": [ 1.278, 1.284364, 1.242405, 1.283882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 228230, "typical_volume": 196346.85, "trend": 1.406833, "fair_value": 4.797788, "relative_strength": -15.578852, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.723406, "energy": 10.820188, "activity_lines": [ 1.35, 1.324182, 1.270571, 1.289032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }