{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03801616-8c25-4b9a-9f80-653bdb20c937", "symbol": "CGRO", "name": "TIDAL TRUST II COREVALUES ALPHA GREATER CHINA GROWTH ET", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.15, "architecture_energy": 23.812, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.443, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.57, "rotation_up": 40.35, "upward_expansion": 24.84, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 19.08, "downward_expansion": 56.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.389753, 21.803964, 22.199125, 22.739363 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.1399, "trend_reference": 23.683496, "distance_from_trend": -0.022953, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.951933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.114427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12574, "excess_performance": -0.251365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022953, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049685, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.176369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 466, "relative_activity": 0.086871, "balance": 0.176369, "dry_up": 0.280375, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042651, "annualized_volatility": 0.223304, "from_high_reference": -0.261362, "from_low_reference": 0.169272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.683496, "fair_value_reference": 22.951933, "structural_low": 19.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046542, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064119, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.075795, "worst_return": -0.119235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.064879, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125881, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.051056, "worst_return": -0.078702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.12574, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.251365, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.12574, "worst_return": -0.12574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -67.611244, "energy": 81.784564, "activity_lines": [ 20.88374, 21.424329, 22.436928, 23.219668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.5817, "volume": 2726, "typical_volume": 5856.85, "trend": 24.191481, "fair_value": 22.962168, "relative_strength": -24.001212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.142409, "energy": 62.918889, "activity_lines": [ 21.093573, 21.338385, 22.29564, 23.039223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.4195, "volume": 384, "typical_volume": 5595.9, "trend": 24.001504, "fair_value": 22.951529, "relative_strength": -23.575058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.515831, "energy": 52.219095, "activity_lines": [ 21.260613, 21.273918, 22.154275, 22.860386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.8225, "volume": 2440, "typical_volume": 5471.35, "trend": 23.836745, "fair_value": 22.950645, "relative_strength": -18.96845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.642485, "energy": 25.902811, "activity_lines": [ 21.869353, 21.508745, 22.158405, 22.784321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.1399, "volume": 466, "typical_volume": 5364.25, "trend": 23.683496, "fair_value": 22.951933, "relative_strength": -20.114427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.149553, "energy": 23.811548, "activity_lines": [ 22.389753, 21.803964, 22.199125, 22.739363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }