{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0389725c-dd5c-4290-abb0-f580cf8aefda", "symbol": "SAP", "name": "SAP SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.529, "architecture_energy": 35.339, "architecture_maturity": 25.761, "architecture_confidence": 68.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.77, "rotation_up": 62.41, "upward_expansion": 34.06, "deceleration": 44.3, "rotation_down": 14.34, "downward_expansion": 20.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.969335, 148.989455, 147.38173, 149.140403 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 177.960007, "trend_reference": 154.88594, "distance_from_trend": 0.148975, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 189.015283, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058489, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.255602, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057005, "excess_performance": -0.007635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148975, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158381, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211511, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.196377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17352393, "relative_activity": 1.482991, "balance": 3.196377, "dry_up": 1.408113, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075445, "annualized_volatility": 0.433817, "from_high_reference": -0.280968, "from_low_reference": 0.395765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 154.88594, "fair_value_reference": 189.015283, "structural_low": 127.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.106193, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.026731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106193, "worst_return": 0.106193, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.166667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": 0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.269534, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.08371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269534, "worst_return": 0.269534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 188.24957, "relative_strength": -27.6772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.552945, "energy": 52.412902, "activity_lines": [ 137.550666, 140.835998, 143.658532, 148.931598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 140.199997, "volume": 14590779, "typical_volume": 11466627.25, "trend": 157.277465, "fair_value": 188.385951, "relative_strength": -26.46348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.06038, "energy": 35.848771, "activity_lines": [ 138.655999, 140.194907, 143.042302, 147.692119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.68, "volume": 20336165, "typical_volume": 11856226.75, "trend": 155.914143, "fair_value": 188.646844, "relative_strength": -18.153027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.79895, "energy": 8.172861, "activity_lines": [ 145.183999, 142.802181, 144.232058, 147.718089 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.960007, "volume": 17352393, "typical_volume": 11700939.0, "trend": 154.88594, "fair_value": 189.015283, "relative_strength": -9.255602, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.528769, "energy": 35.339082, "activity_lines": [ 156.969335, 148.989455, 147.38173, 149.140403 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }