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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.292, "architecture_energy": 55.284, "architecture_maturity": 95.055, "architecture_confidence": 74.837, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.27, "rotation_up": 43.92, "upward_expansion": 69.67, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 388.370669, 389.126365, 380.967666, 370.203441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 393.820007, "trend_reference": 357.792668, "distance_from_trend": 0.100693, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 300.425513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.028815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.171839, "excess_performance": 0.000947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100693, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.310874, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171839, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.923246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2723, "relative_activity": 0.876422, "balance": 0.923246, "dry_up": 2.099567, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022791, "annualized_volatility": 0.129895, "from_high_reference": -0.00846, "from_low_reference": 0.381243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 357.792668, "fair_value_reference": 300.425513, 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367.688666, 358.343785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 390.540009, "volume": 3447, "typical_volume": 3747.5, "trend": 349.491668, "fair_value": 297.126026, "relative_strength": 1.66694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.14111, "energy": 86.830766, "activity_lines": [ 392.083336, 385.685636, 371.059143, 361.132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 388.019989, "volume": 5219, "typical_volume": 3737.5, "trend": 351.645668, "fair_value": 297.956282, "relative_strength": 2.341126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.594721, "energy": 82.714628, "activity_lines": [ 391.135999, 387.219634, 373.940094, 363.617699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 388.880005, "volume": 9928, "typical_volume": 3948.05, "trend": 353.850001, "fair_value": 298.769295, "relative_strength": 2.594158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.301515, "energy": 64.171203, "activity_lines": [ 390.186001, 388.454727, 376.645285, 366.019914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 380.809998, "volume": 8223, "typical_volume": 3950.65, "trend": 355.935334, "fair_value": 299.539936, "relative_strength": -0.335854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.589587, "energy": 52.970995, "activity_lines": [ 386.589333, 387.705817, 378.322904, 367.759269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 393.820007, "volume": 2723, "typical_volume": 3106.95, "trend": 357.792668, "fair_value": 300.425513, "relative_strength": -0.028815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.292494, "energy": 55.283577, "activity_lines": [ 388.370669, 389.126365, 380.967666, 370.203441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }