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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.14, "architecture_energy": 42.467, "architecture_maturity": 37.664, "architecture_confidence": 61.557, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.63, "rotation_up": 47.86, "upward_expansion": 72.34, "deceleration": 69.24, "rotation_down": 23.73, "downward_expansion": 10.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 231.936667, 231.511535, 221.406539, 218.311946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 236.4, "trend_reference": 215.929948, "distance_from_trend": 0.0948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 142.162435, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.662887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.926202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047055, "excess_performance": -0.07857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.662887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059262, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168374, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047055, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.564855, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10672275, "relative_activity": 1.026603, "balance": 1.564855, "dry_up": 1.009205, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053862, "annualized_volatility": 0.27366, "from_high_reference": -0.03459, "from_low_reference": 0.730134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 215.929948, "fair_value_reference": 142.162435, "structural_low": 180.059311, 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223.314228, 214.636725, 213.874567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 228.52, "volume": 12432840, "typical_volume": 10441674.8, "trend": 213.218859, "fair_value": 139.399505, "relative_strength": 7.784287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.690022, "energy": 73.085101, "activity_lines": [ 233.247975, 226.013975, 216.158394, 214.918854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 228.03, "volume": 9133340, "typical_volume": 10358887.25, "trend": 213.910695, "fair_value": 140.298834, "relative_strength": 7.742972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.544012, "energy": 56.331611, "activity_lines": [ 231.794326, 227.801584, 217.634154, 215.874411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 230.03, "volume": 9727174, "typical_volume": 10408925.55, "trend": 214.737506, "fair_value": 141.213683, "relative_strength": 7.104697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.676949, "energy": 42.079216, "activity_lines": [ 230.558, 229.348237, 219.249088, 216.914366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.4, "volume": 10672275, "typical_volume": 10395716.95, "trend": 215.929948, "fair_value": 142.162435, "relative_strength": 5.926202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.13978, "energy": 42.466998, "activity_lines": [ 231.936667, 231.511535, 221.406539, 218.311946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }