{ "ticker": { "uuid": "038d8930-7b45-48cb-be43-1a9bf68637eb", "symbol": "BBAI", "name": "BigBearai Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.829, "architecture_energy": 64.374, "architecture_maturity": 23.861, "architecture_confidence": 84.463, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.75, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 13.07, "deceleration": 39.34, "rotation_down": 72.01, "downward_expansion": 88.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.982667, 3.181091, 3.546095, 3.668559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.27, "trend_reference": 3.955333, "distance_from_trend": -0.173268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.440192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.229342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307203, "excess_performance": -0.432828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.311261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.412293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307203, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.692872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144691169, "relative_activity": 0.870142, "balance": 0.692872, "dry_up": 0.804057, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188189, "annualized_volatility": 0.713048, "from_high_reference": -0.651757, "from_low_reference": 0.262548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.955333, "fair_value_reference": 3.440192, "structural_low": 2.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005704, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.000445, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.299465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.012304, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.448, "worst_return": -0.331551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.247291, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.134963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.526667, "worst_return": -0.032086, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-44.375761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.205138, "energy": 58.586812, "activity_lines": [ 3.518, 3.816545, 3.873476, 4.002043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.84, "volume": 141654619, "typical_volume": 176947486.0, "trend": 4.253667, "fair_value": 3.419423, "relative_strength": -49.818693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.707227, "energy": 74.23726, "activity_lines": [ 3.25, 3.607455, 3.775571, 3.903484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.76, "volume": 101744037, "typical_volume": 168978806.35, "trend": 4.154667, "fair_value": 3.425128, "relative_strength": -49.933838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.441286, "energy": 76.947832, "activity_lines": [ 3.034, 3.408182, 3.675381, 3.807118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 146718756, "typical_volume": 167330028.25, "trend": 4.053, "fair_value": 3.430128, "relative_strength": -49.062217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.494437, "energy": 76.10851, "activity_lines": [ 2.905333, 3.238364, 3.585143, 3.719075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.27, "volume": 144691169, "typical_volume": 166284454.25, "trend": 3.955333, "fair_value": 3.440192, "relative_strength": -41.229342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.82927, "energy": 64.374424, "activity_lines": [ 2.982667, 3.181091, 3.546095, 3.668559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }